Course 19 of 20 · Agricultural Commodities Desk Academy

Crop Failure, Export Restrictions & Default

Stage E, Integrated merchant practice. Level 9 of 10.

The book under stress: force majeure and washout settlement, export bans, quotas and duty changes, counterparty default and insolvency, and the credit, margin and funding consequences of each.

127 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 07, Course 08, Course 09

Enrol or enquire See the 127 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 127 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 Why the Grain Arrives and the Merchant Still Fails Ch 1-11
  1. The Shortfall That Becomes a Funding Event
  2. A Failed Harvest Read as a Credit Event
  3. Granted By and Held By on a Grain Contract
  4. A Scenario With a Date, a Tonnage and a Name
  5. The Seats a Stress Run Is Argued From
  6. A Broken Delivery, a Cash Settlement and a Collateral Call
  7. Washout, Default Settlement and Ineligible Stock
  8. The Base, the Documents and the Claim Taken as Read
  9. A Run That Ends in an Instruction
  10. Hedge Mechanics, Option Structures and Freight as Inputs
  11. From the Obligation Ledger to the Survival Verdict
M1 What the Book Owes, and on Which Day Ch 12-22
  1. A Ledger of Obligations, Each Carrying Its Own Date
  2. Grain Owned, Grain Promised and the Length Between
  3. Pledged, In Transit or Free: Grading the Inventory
  4. Which Clearing Account Each Hedge Lot Sits In
  5. Unpriced Tonnage as a Line With a Deadline
  6. Money Already Advanced Against a Growing Crop
  7. Unpaid Sales Dated by Customer and Terms
  8. Currency and Freight Commitments as Dated Cash
  9. The Same Name Appearing on Both Sides of the Book
  10. An Illustrative Merchant Book for the Work Ahead
  11. Reading the Ledger for the Joint That Breaks First
M2 The Hedge Works and the Merchant Runs Out of Cash Ch 23-34
  1. Solvent Hedge, Insolvent Merchant
  2. Who Calls the Collateral and Who Must Wire It
  3. Counting the Days Between the Call and the Receipt
  4. Where a Paper Gain Turns Into Banked Money
  5. The Collateral Calendar Under a Violent Rally
  6. When the Rate Per Contract Rises Mid-Squeeze
  7. A Collapsing Board Hurts the Other Half of the Book
  8. A Crusher Paying Calls on Beans It Has Not Bought
  9. A Chicago Wheat Hedge and a Paris Rapeseed Hedge
  10. Calls in Dollars While the Elevator Pays in Local Money
  11. The Worst Morning and What Was Left Undrawn
  12. An Illustrative Rally Walked Through Day by Day
M3 The Crop That Did Not Arrive Ch 35-46
  1. Deferred, Part-Filled or Abandoned
  2. Drought as the Trigger and Not the Subject
  3. A Farmer Who Sold More Bushels Than He Grew
  4. Side-Selling When the Cash Market Runs Away
  5. A Drought Notice Offered as Force Majeure
  6. Crop Failure Clauses and the Acreage They Point At
  7. The Prepayment With Nothing Standing Behind It
  8. The Pool That Cannot Fill Its Own Commitments
  9. A Producer Short on an Accumulator Programme
  10. Buying the Bushels Again in a Market That Knows
  11. Short on the Exchange and Still Owing Delivery
  12. Unwinding a Hedge for a Delivery You Cannot Make
M4 Settling Out in Cash Instead of Grain Ch 47-58
  1. Cancelling a Contract and Paying the Difference
  2. The Request to Cancel Is Itself Information
  3. Computing the Difference, Direction Before Arithmetic
  4. A Rally Turns the Grower Into the Payer
  5. A Slump Turns the Importer Into the Payer
  6. Settling Out a Contract That Was Never Priced
  7. Agreeing to Settle Out Is Extending Credit
  8. Repeated Cancellations as an Unsecured Loan Book
  9. The Difference Now Against the Grain Later
  10. The Hedge Behind a Contract That No Longer Exists
  11. A String of Matched Sales and One Broken Link
  12. Writing the Settlement Down Before Anybody Forgets
M5 A Government Closes the Origin Ch 59-71
  1. An Export Ban Is a Market Event and a Legal One
  2. The Instruments a State Actually Reaches For
  3. Named Origins That Have Restricted Grain Exports
  4. A Quota That Fills Before Your Cargo Loads
  5. A Duty Announced Between Sale and Shipment
  6. A Minimum Export Price That Prices You Out
  7. Is a Ban Force Majeure Under the Terms You Signed
  8. Prohibition, Impossibility and Mere Loss
  9. The Restriction Moves Price Against Whoever Is Short
  10. Prices Fall Inside the Closed Origin and Rise Outside It
  11. Grain Already Loaded When the Order Lands
  12. The Cash Consequence of an Origin Going Dark
  13. Switching Origin When One of Them Is Shut
M6 The Buyer Who Will Not Pay Ch 72-82
  1. A Mill in Trouble With Your Grain in Its Silo
  2. A Disputed Invoice Used as a Funding Device
  3. Signals a Salesman Reads Differently From a Credit Officer
  4. Stopping the Cargo Without Giving Away a Termination Right
  5. The Buyer Fails Inside the Terms You Granted
  6. The Overdue You Must Report Before the Policy Pays
  7. Reselling a Parcel Blended for One Specification
  8. An Unpriced Sale and a Delivery Month Expiring
  9. Pricing Into a Deadline Against Silence
  10. Netting a Payable Against a Claim on the Same Name
  11. Pricing the Wait, Not the Right
M7 The Lender Tightens While the Call Arrives Ch 83-93
  1. What the Bank Can Do to You Between Reviews
  2. A Call This Afternoon, Collateral Recognised Next Month
  3. A Failed Grower Also Shrinks What You Can Borrow
  4. Cutting the Hedge Breaches the Condition You Borrow Under
  5. A Covenant Tested in the Worst Quarter of the Season
  6. The Bank Behind the Letter of Credit Is the Problem
  7. Everybody Asks for Security on the Same Morning
  8. More Receipts Than Bushels in the Bin
  9. Asking for a Seasonal Uplift Already Drawn
  10. Paying to Keep a Line You Hope Never to Draw
  11. The Origin Subsidiary That Cannot Settle the Group's Hedge
M8 Designing a Run Somebody Signs Ch 94-104
  1. A Scenario Attached to an Authority
  2. The Five Shocks a Grain Book Should Face
  3. One Assumption Followed Through Every Leg
  4. The Same Two Events in the Opposite Order
  5. Working Back From the Scale Ticket You Must Pay
  6. Choosing How Hard to Push the Board
  7. Why This Work Refuses to Attach Probabilities
  8. The Joints a Grain Stress Test Must Declare
  9. What the Run Puts on One Page
  10. Who Builds the Run and Who May Doubt It
  11. Standing Permission for a Limit-Up Morning
M9 When the Run Says the Book Does Not Survive Ch 105-114
  1. The Queue at the Scale and the Call at the Broker
  2. Selling Grain You Meant to Carry
  3. The Mill Asked to Price and the Farmer Asking to Be Paid
  4. Proposing the Cancellation Yourself
  5. Reducing the Hedge as a Portfolio Decision
  6. Where the Money Comes From Once the Line Is Full
  7. Slowing Payments to Growers and What It Destroys
  8. Turning Grain Away at the Scale
  9. Who Hears It First When a Licensed Warehouse Is Short
  10. The Summer Lull Is When the Plan Gets Written
M10 One Stress Run, End to End Ch 115-127
  1. The Opening Position on the First of September
  2. Week One: A Dry Forecast and a Board That Jumps
  3. Week Two: Four Days of Calls and No Invoice
  4. Week Three: Growers Stop Confirming Delivery
  5. Week Three Continued: The Settlement Offered
  6. Week Four: Replacement Bushels at a Wider Basis
  7. Week Five: The Origin Announces an Export Duty
  8. Week Six: A New Asset Schedule on a Board That Broke
  9. The Verdict: The Worst Morning of the Episode
  10. The Same Harvest Without a Plan
  11. Swapping the Two Parties in Every Entry
  12. A Survived Run Is Not a Safe Book
  13. Four Simplifications This Work Relies On

The brochure gives each of these 127 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 19 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Agricultural Commodities Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway