Course 04 of 20 · Coffee Desk Academy

Supply, Demand, Crop Cycles & Weather

Stage A, Coffee market foundations. Level 3 of 10.

Building a crop and consumption balance from flowering, harvest, carryover and weather information.

122 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 01, Course 02, Course 03

Enrol or enquire See the 122 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 122 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 What a Coffee Balance Is Ch 1-10
  1. The Coffee Balance Identity
  2. The Questions a Merchant Puts to a Balance
  3. Arabica and Robusta Need Separate Balances
  4. The Coffee Year and the Origin Harvest Calendar
  5. Green Bean Equivalent as the Unit of the Table
  6. Carryover: the Bags Nobody Has to Declare
  7. Where the Unexplained Bags End Up
  8. Drawing the Boundary Round One Origin or the World
  9. Who Publishes a Coffee Balance, and What Each One Counts
  10. From Blossom to the Roaster's Shelf: the Route This Course Takes
M1 The Tree and the Crop Cycle Ch 11-22
  1. The Tree That Decides Next Year's Crop
  2. Blossom and the Rain That Sets a Crop
  3. Several Flowerings and One Uneven Harvest
  4. From Flower to Mature Cherry
  5. Fruit Set, Pinhead Drop and the Crop That Never Forms
  6. Biennial Bearing as a Deliberately Simplified Two-Year Cycle
  7. What Breaks the Two-Year Rhythm
  8. Robusta's Flowering and Its Own Calendar
  9. Altitude, Latitude and the Spread of a Harvest Window
  10. Area Planted, Area Harvested and the Gap Between Them
  11. Yield as the Term You Cannot See Until It Arrives
  12. Renovation, Stumping and a Decision Taken Years Earlier
M2 Estimating the Crop at Origin Ch 23-34
  1. Counting a Crop Before It Is Picked
  2. Brazil's Survey Rounds and What Each One Can See
  3. Colombia's Monthly Production Record
  4. Vietnam's Robusta Crop and the Estimates Available
  5. The Trade's Own Crop Estimate and Who Builds It
  6. Satellite Imagery Against a Walk Through the Rows
  7. Cherry to Parchment to Green: the Outturn Chain
  8. Smallholder Plots, Estates and Who Actually Reports
  9. Why a Crop Estimate Revises, and Which Way
  10. Grading the Evidence Behind a Crop Figure
  11. Export Registrations as a Running Crop Check
  12. A Production Line Assembled and Stress Tested
M3 Weather, Climate and Crop Damage Ch 35-46
  1. What a Meteorological Service Gives a Coffee Desk
  2. Rain the Crop Needs and Rain That Ruins It
  3. Frost in the Southern Brazilian Growing Belt
  4. Drought, Soil Moisture and a Crop Already on the Tree
  5. Too Much Rain: Harvest Disruption and Drying Failure
  6. Leaf Rust and Berry Borer: Losses That Are Not Weather
  7. Forecast Horizon and the Decay of Skill
  8. The El Nino Argument and Its Assumptions
  9. The Climate Shift Argument and Its Assumptions
  10. The Weather Edge Argument and Its Assumptions
  11. Turning a Weather Event Into Bags
  12. Damage Reports, Field Photographs and Verification
M4 Carryover and Visible Stocks Ch 47-57
  1. Carryover as What Is Left When a Crop Year Closes
  2. Where Coffee Sits Between Harvest and Roasting
  3. Certified Arabica Stocks and What Certification Selects
  4. Robusta Certified Stocks and the Second Window
  5. Destination Port Warehouse Reports
  6. The Roaster's Pipeline, Which Nobody Publishes
  7. Origin Stocks and the Hardest Number in the Table
  8. Minimum Working Stock and the Floor Beneath Carryover
  9. Weeks of Roasting Cover as a Normalising Measure
  10. Reading a Certified Stock Change Without Over-Reading It
  11. Carryover as Residual, and the Circularity to Watch
M5 Consumption Ch 58-69
  1. Consumption as Disappearance, Not Cups Counted
  2. Roasted and Soluble Converted Back to Green
  3. Domestic Consumption in Producing Countries
  4. Importing Country Disappearance and the Stock Change Inside It
  5. Re-Exports and the Double Counted Bag
  6. Soluble Manufacture and the Bridge Between Two Species
  7. The Blend Substitution Argument and Its Assumptions
  8. At Home, Out of Home and the Channel That Moved
  9. Population, Income and the Growth Underneath
  10. Roasting Seasonality and the Northern Winter
  11. Retail Price Pass-Through and the Lag Before Demand Reacts
  12. Downtrading Against Walking Away
M6 Exports, Imports and Coffee in Transit Ch 70-79
  1. Exports as the Best Measured Line
  2. Reading an Origin's Monthly Export Report
  3. Export Pace Through a Crop Year
  4. Shipment, Transit and the Weeks Before Arrival
  5. Coffee Afloat as Inventory Between Two Balances
  6. Destination Import Statistics and the Customs Record
  7. Reconciling an Origin's Exports Against a Destination's Imports
  8. Transhipment Hubs and the Bag Counted Twice
  9. Retention, Quotas and Administrative Supply
  10. The Dry Mill Bottleneck Between Harvest and Shipment
M7 Assembling the Balance Ch 80-90
  1. The First Closed Crop Year
  2. Solving for the Closing Carryover
  3. Two Species, One Worksheet
  4. Aligning Origins on One Calendar
  5. Phasing an Annual Balance Into Months
  6. The Discrepancy That Will Not Close
  7. Adjusting One Input at a Time
  8. The Places a Coffee Balance Loses Bags
  9. Documenting a Balance So It Can Be Rebuilt
  10. One Origin Alone as a Deliberately Simplified Case
  11. What a Multi Origin Table Adds
M8 Published Balances and the Weight of Evidence Ch 91-100
  1. What the International Coffee Organization Publishes
  2. The USDA Coffee Balance and Its Attache Chain
  3. Reading a Merchant House Crop Estimate
  4. Why Two Credible Balances Disagree
  5. Every Balance Is a Photograph With a Date
  6. How Far a First Estimate Moves
  7. What a Methodology Note Should Tell You
  8. The Incentive Behind a Published Number
  9. Stitching One Usable Coffee History
  10. Why a Published Crop Estimate Is an Estimate
M9 Forward Balances and Scenarios Ch 101-111
  1. From a Closed Year to the Crop Not Yet Picked
  2. Projecting a Crop From Flowering Evidence
  3. Projecting Consumption Without a Trend Line
  4. The Carryover Bridge Between Two Crop Years
  5. Scenarios Built From Crop Years That Happened
  6. The On Year and Off Year Scenario Pair
  7. Which Line Has to Move
  8. The Assumption That Moves the Crop Year
  9. The Rolling Balance and When to Revise Early
  10. A Coffee Year Projected End to End
  11. The One Page a Coffee Trader Will Read
M10 Reading, Testing and the Limits of a Crop View Ch 112-122
  1. Testing a Balance Against the Quoted Exchange Price
  2. When Your Crop View and the Exchange Point Opposite Ways
  3. Certified Stock Direction as a Check
  4. The Differential as Corroboration, Not Conclusion
  5. Scoring Last Year's Crop View
  6. Attributing a Balance Miss
  7. When a Planting Wave Retires Your History
  8. A Worked Crop Year, Part One: the Evidence as It Arrived
  9. A Worked Crop Year, Part Two: the Judgement and the Outcome
  10. What a Crop Balance Cannot Settle
  11. What a Crop View Hands to the Buyer and the Hedger

The brochure gives each of these 122 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 4 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Coffee Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway