Master program · Risk, Controls & Surveillance

Know the exposure. Model the future. Defend the decision.

Master counterparty credit risk in commodity trading: current exposure, netting and master agreements, collateral and CSAs, Monte Carlo PFE, limits and pre-trade controls, wrong-way risk, margin and liquidity stress, and default close-out.

Current exposure · Netting · Collateral & CSA · PFE · Limits · Wrong-way risk · Close-out

Enquire about this programme See the 130 chapters

130 chapters · 12 modules · Python + SQL labs · one continuous case · end-to-end capstone

How it is built

Cumulative, not modular

Chapter 130 should be impossible to complete properly without the artefacts built in the chapters before it. The programme follows one continuous fictional firm, NorthStar Energy Trading, so relationships between trades, positions, agreements, exposures and decisions accumulate rather than reset.

The learning chain

Counterparty → Agreement → Trade → MtM → Netting → Collateral → CE → PFE → Limits → Wrong-way risk → Stress → Default → Credit decision

The technical build

Credit master → Exposure engine → Netting engine → Collateral engine → Monte Carlo PFE → Limit engine → Pre-trade API → Stress engine → Credit platform

NorthStar Energy Trading is a fictional firm created for teaching. It does not describe any real company, person or investigation.

Curriculum

12 modules · 130 chapters

M0 Commodity Credit Risk Desk Primer Ch 1–8 · 8 chapters

Establish the credit-risk operating model

  1. What a Commodity Credit Risk Function Actually Does
  2. Front Office → ETRM → Credit Engine → Credit Decision
  3. Counterparty Risk vs Market Risk
  4. Current Exposure, Future Exposure and Settlement Exposure
  5. Anatomy of a Commodity Credit Decision
  6. Credit Limits and Risk Appetite
  7. From Trade Approval to Exposure Monitoring
  8. End-to-End Commodity Credit Operating Model
M1 Counterparty & Credit Structure Ch 9–20 · 12 chapters

Understand who NorthStar is actually exposed to

  1. Counterparty Legal Entities
  2. Parent, Subsidiary and Credit Group Structures
  3. Counterparty Types in Commodity Markets
  4. External Credit Ratings
  5. Internal Credit Rating Models
  6. Financial Statement Analysis for Commodity Counterparties
  7. Commodity Business Model Risk
  8. Guarantees and Credit Support
  9. Sovereign and Country Risk
  10. Counterparty Onboarding and Credit Approval
  11. Credit Review and Watchlist Management
  12. Building the NorthStar Counterparty Credit Master
M2 Trade MtM & Current Exposure Ch 21–32 · 12 chapters

Turn commodity trades into credit exposure

  1. Why Mark-to-Market Creates Credit Exposure
  2. Positive and Negative Replacement Value
  3. Gas Forward Exposure
  4. Power Forward Exposure
  5. Oil and Refined-Product Exposure
  6. LNG Transaction Exposure
  7. Emissions and Environmental Product Exposure
  8. Multi-Currency Commodity Exposure
  9. Trade-Level to Counterparty-Level Aggregation
  10. Current Exposure Calculation
  11. Receivables, Payables and Settlement Exposure
  12. Building NorthStar's Current Exposure Engine
M3 Netting & Master Agreements Ch 33–44 · 12 chapters

Move from gross exposure to legally meaningful exposure

  1. Why Netting Changes Credit Risk
  2. Netting Sets
  3. ISDA Master Agreement Foundations
  4. EFET General Agreement Foundations
  5. NAESB and Other Commodity Agreements
  6. Payment Netting
  7. Close-Out Netting
  8. Cross-Product Netting
  9. Legal Opinions and Enforceability
  10. Netting Failure Scenarios
  11. Gross vs Net Exposure Analysis
  12. Building the Netting Engine
M4 Collateral & CSA Ch 45–58 · 14 chapters

Convert contractual collateral terms into exposure mechanics

  1. Why Collateral Exists
  2. CSA Architecture
  3. Thresholds
  4. Minimum Transfer Amount
  5. Independent Amount and Initial Margin Concepts
  6. Variation Margin
  7. Eligible Collateral
  8. Haircuts and Valuation Adjustments
  9. Margin Call Lifecycle
  10. Margin Disputes
  11. Collateral Settlement Risk
  12. Collateral Optimization
  13. Collateralized Exposure Calculation
  14. Building NorthStar's Collateral Engine
M5 Potential Future Exposure Ch 59–74 · 16 chapters

Move from today's exposure to tomorrow's possible exposure

  1. Why Current Exposure Is Not Enough
  2. Exposure Profiles Through Time
  3. Commodity Price Dynamics for Credit Exposure
  4. Monte Carlo Exposure Simulation
  5. PFE Calculation
  6. Expected Exposure
  7. Peak PFE
  8. Gas Portfolio PFE
  9. Power Portfolio PFE
  10. Oil and LNG PFE
  11. Multi-Commodity Correlation
  12. PFE Under Netting
  13. PFE Under Collateral
  14. Model Risk in PFE
  15. PFE Sensitivity and Stress Testing
  16. Building NorthStar's PFE Engine
M6 Credit Limits & Pre-Trade Controls Ch 75–86 · 12 chapters
  1. Credit Limit Architecture
  2. Exposure Measures Used for Limits
  3. Limit Utilization
  4. Incremental Exposure
  5. Pre-Deal Credit Checking
  6. Tenor Limits
  7. Product and Commodity Limits
  8. Settlement Limits
  9. Temporary Limit Increases
  10. Limit Breaches
  11. Limit Overrides and Governance
  12. Building the Pre-Trade Credit API
M7 Wrong-Way & Concentration Risk Ch 87–98 · 12 chapters
  1. Understanding Wrong-Way Risk
  2. General Wrong-Way Risk
  3. Specific Wrong-Way Risk
  4. Producer Wrong-Way Risk
  5. Utility Wrong-Way Risk
  6. Industrial Consumer Wrong-Way Risk
  7. LNG Counterparty Wrong-Way Risk
  8. Geographic Concentration
  9. Sector Concentration
  10. Correlated Default Scenarios
  11. Wrong-Way Risk Metrics and Controls
  12. NorthStar Wrong-Way Risk Case
M8 Margin, Liquidity & Stress Ch 99–108 · 10 chapters
  1. Credit Risk Meets Liquidity Risk
  2. Commodity Margin Mechanics
  3. Margin-at-Risk
  4. Commodity Price Shock Stress
  5. Volatility and Correlation Stress
  6. Collateral Liquidity Stress
  7. Counterparty Downgrade Stress
  8. Reverse Stress Testing
  9. Integrated Credit/Liquidity Dashboard
  10. Crisis Credit Governance
M9 Default & Close-Out Ch 109–118 · 10 chapters
  1. Early Warning Indicators
  2. Credit Watchlists
  3. Events of Default
  4. Trading Freeze and Exposure Containment
  5. Close-Out Valuation
  6. Net Close-Out Amount
  7. Replacement and Hedging Costs
  8. Recovery and Loss Given Default
  9. Default Post-Mortem
  10. NorthStar Counterparty Default Simulation
M10 ETRM, Data & Credit Technology Ch 119–124 · 6 chapters
  1. ETRM as the Credit Exposure Source
  2. Credit Risk Data Model
  3. Batch vs Intraday Exposure
  4. Credit Calculation Architecture
  5. Credit Data Quality & Reconciliation
  6. Building the NorthStar Credit Platform
M11 NorthStar Counterparty Crisis Capstone Ch 125–130 · 6 chapters

No predetermined answer

  1. The Counterparty Crisis Begins
  2. Reconstruct the Portfolio
  3. Recalculate PFE, Collateral & Limits
  4. Apply Wrong-Way and Stress Scenarios
  5. Senior Credit Committee Decision
  6. Default, Survival or Recovery: Final Credit Case
How it is delivered

Three ways to take Commodity Credit Risk & Counterparty Exposure

Self-paced is a document-and-media programme with lifetime access - no live sessions. Cohort and enterprise add live instructor-led training. Mentorship is not offered in any tier.
Feature Self-paced Cohort Enterprise
Format Written chapters, video explainers and podcasts Everything in self-paced, plus scheduled live sessions Everything in cohort, delivered privately to your team
Live sessions None Scheduled, instructor-led Scheduled, instructor-led, private
Mentorship Not offered Not offered Not offered
Access Lifetime Lifetime Lifetime for every enrolled seat
Pace Entirely your own Guided schedule with a peer group Agreed with your desk
Tailoring Fixed curriculum Fixed curriculum Sequenced to your markets, systems and governance
Best for Individuals learning around a job Individuals who want structure and deadlines Desks building the same capability together
For individuals

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The full chapter list, what each module covers, and how the tiers compare - sent to your inbox as a PDF.

For teams

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Private delivery for your desk, sequenced to your markets and systems. Tell us the team and we will scope it.

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Download the full curriculum, or talk to us about running it for a desk or a control function.

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