Course 09 of 20 · Crude Oil Desk Academy

Supply, Demand, Balances and Trade Flows

Stage C, Market analysis. Level 5 of 10.

Building a supply and demand balance, reading inventory data, and modelling trade flows and disruptions.

123 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 01, Course 03, Course 04

Enrol or enquire See the 123 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 123 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Balance as an Instrument Ch 1-10
  1. What a Balance Actually Is
  2. Why Analysts Build Balances Rather Than Forecasts
  3. The Units a Balance Is Kept In
  4. Choosing the Period a Balance Covers
  5. Choosing the Geographic Boundary
  6. Crude Balance Versus Total Liquids Balance
  7. Flows and Levels Are Different Numbers
  8. What a Balance Is Entitled to Claim
  9. The Residual and Why It Carries Every Error
  10. Laying Out the Balance Worksheet
M1 The Supply Side Ch 11-21
  1. Counting Production: Who Reports and How
  2. Crude, Condensate and the Boundary Problem
  3. Natural Gas Liquids in the Supply Line
  4. Processing Gain: Supply Nobody Lifted
  5. Biofuels and Other Non-Crude Liquids
  6. Maintenance Seasons and the Shape of Supply
  7. Unplanned Outages and How They Enter the Numbers
  8. Estimating Output Where Nobody Reports It
  9. Rig Counts, Completions and Short-Cycle Supply
  10. Sizing Spare Capacity Rather Than Asserting It
  11. Assembling the Supply Block
M2 The Demand Side Ch 22-33
  1. What Oil Demand Actually Measures
  2. Apparent Demand and Its Built-In Distortion
  3. Refinery Throughput and Other Direct Crude Uses
  4. Capacity, Utilisation and Turnaround Cycles
  5. Reading Refinery Margin as a Driver of Runs
  6. Product Demand by Sector
  7. Seasonal Demand Shape and Weather Sensitivity
  8. Price Elasticity and Subsidy Distortion
  9. Income, Vehicle Stock and Structural Growth
  10. Petrochemical Feedstock Demand and Its Own Cycle
  11. Demand Destruction Versus Demand Deferral
  12. Assembling the Demand Block
M3 Data, Quality and Revision Ch 34-44
  1. Mapping the Data Estate
  2. Official Statistics and the Submission Chain
  3. Agency Estimates and Where the Judgement Sits
  4. Commercial Trackers and Remote Sensing
  5. Ship Tracking and the Limits of AIS
  6. Customs and Trade Statistics as a Flow Source
  7. Revisions and the First Print Problem
  8. Vintaging Your Own Numbers
  9. Judging a Series You Did Not Build
  10. Reconciling Two Sources That Disagree
  11. Building a Data Quality Register
M4 Inventory and What It Counts Ch 45-57
  1. What an Inventory Number Is Counting
  2. Commercial Stocks Versus Strategic Reserves
  3. Crude Stocks, Product Stocks and Where They Sit
  4. The Weekly Statistical Report and Its Anatomy
  5. The Delivery Point Stock Figure and Its Outsized Weight
  6. Monthly Country Submissions and the Reporting Lag
  7. Pipeline Fill, Tank Bottoms and Unavailable Volume
  8. Days of Cover as a Normalising Measure
  9. Seasonal Norms and the Five-Year Range
  10. Measuring Deviation From Normal
  11. Stocks Outside the Reported Perimeter
  12. Reading Stock Change Against Curve Shape
  13. Inventory Surprise and the Wrong Number
M5 Oil on Water Ch 58-66
  1. Oil on Water as a Balance Item
  2. Measuring Afloat Volume From Vessel Positions
  3. Transit Time and the Pipeline of the Sea
  4. Voyage Lengthening and Phantom Inventory
  5. Floating Storage: Intent Versus Delay
  6. Discharge Queues and Congestion Volume
  7. Transfers at Sea and Unobserved Movement
  8. From Afloat to Onshore: Timing the Arrival
  9. Putting Water-Borne Volume Into the Balance
M6 Constructing the Balance Ch 67-77
  1. Assembling the First Full Balance
  2. Deriving Implied Stock Change
  3. Comparing Implied Change With Observed Stocks
  4. The Statistical Discrepancy and Its Honest Treatment
  5. Where Missing Barrels Usually Hide
  6. Allocating the Residual Without Deceiving Yourself
  7. Rebalancing After a Revision
  8. Back-Casting to Test Your Method
  9. Carrying the Identity Into the Future
  10. Scenario Bands Instead of a Point Forecast
  11. Documenting a Balance So It Can Be Audited
M7 Trade Flows Between Regions Ch 78-90
  1. Why Regional Balances Must Net to the Global One
  2. The Surplus and Deficit Map
  3. Matching Grade to Refinery as a Flow Constraint
  4. Freight, Distance and the Shape of Normal Flow
  5. Chokepoints and Transit Capacity
  6. Pipeline Routes Versus Seaborne Routes
  7. Building a Regional Flow Matrix
  8. Calibrating the Matrix to Observed Movements
  9. Sanctions, Embargoes and Redirected Volume
  10. Flow Redirection and Its Freight Consequence
  11. Tariffs, Quotas and Policy-Driven Flow
  12. Detecting a Structural Flow Shift Early
  13. A Worked Flow Reroute
M8 Disruption and Its Quantification Ch 91-103
  1. Defining a Disruption Precisely
  2. Classifying Disruption by Cause and Duration
  3. Sizing the Volume at Risk
  4. Who Can Actually Replace the Lost Barrels
  5. Spare Capacity Deliverability and Its Lags
  6. Stock Draw as the First Response
  7. Grade Substitution and the Quality Mismatch
  8. Building the Disruption Scenario Table
  9. Quantifying the Balance Impact
  10. Duration, Decay and Recovery Paths
  11. Second-Order and Cascading Effects
  12. Demand-Side Disruption
  13. A Worked Disruption, End to End
M9 Testing the Balance Against the Market Ch 104-114
  1. When Prices Disagree With Your Balance
  2. Curve Shape as a Verdict on Inventory
  3. Positioning Data and Its Limits as Evidence
  4. Physical Signals Against Statistical Ones
  5. Deciding Whether the Market or You Is Wrong
  6. Falsifiable Expectations and Tracking Them
  7. Keeping a Forecast Error Log
  8. Common Errors in Balance Work
  9. Narrative Capture and Confirmation Bias
  10. Communicating a Balance to a Decision Maker
  11. Writing the Monthly Balance Note
M10 Integration, Limits and Routine Ch 115-123
  1. A Full Quarter, Part One: Assembling the Inputs
  2. A Full Quarter, Part Two: The Balance and the Residual
  3. A Full Quarter, Part Three: The Flow Matrix
  4. A Full Quarter, Part Four: A Disruption Lands
  5. Handing the Balance to the Desk
  6. What a Balance Cannot Tell You
  7. Where Analysis Stops and Trading Begins
  8. Building Your Own Analytical Estate
  9. The Standing Monthly Routine

The brochure gives each of these 123 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 9 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Crude Oil Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway