Course 19 of 20 · Emissions and Carbon Desk Academy

Policy Shocks, Reversals & Counterparty Stress

Stage E, Integrity, stress and integrated practice. Level 10 of 10.

Stress and scenario testing a carbon book against rule change, reversal events and counterparty failure.

126 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 09, Course 15, Course 16, Course 18

Enrol or enquire See the 126 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 126 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 Stressing a Book Whose Asset Is Made by a Rule Ch 1-10
  1. An Asset Created by a Rule and Unmade by One
  2. Three Shock Families and Why They Are Tested Apart
  3. Why a Retired Unit Can Still Reach You
  4. Testing an Obligation, Not Only a Mark
  5. A Scenario Is an Assumption, Never a Forecast
  6. The Four Readers of a Carbon Stress Result
  7. Measuring Shortfall in Tonnes Before Money
  8. The Words a Stressed Carbon Desk Uses
  9. What This Material Assumes You Already Hold
  10. Map of the Material and What the Simulation Takes
M1 The Rule Dependency Map of a Carbon Book Ch 11-21
  1. Tracing Every Holding Back to the Rule That Validates It
  2. Holdings That Depend on a Cap Decision
  3. Holdings That Depend on an Eligibility Rule
  4. Holdings That Depend on a Methodology Staying Approved
  5. Holdings That Depend on a Host Country Permission
  6. Holdings That Depend on One Verifier
  7. Holdings That Depend on a Pool You Do Not Control
  8. Holdings That Depend on Continued Programme Recognition
  9. Obligations With a Substitute and Obligations Without
  10. Shared Failure Points Behind Units That Look Unrelated
  11. How Long Each Unit Class Takes to Replace
M2 Rule Change: Cap, Allocation and Supply Ch 22-32
  1. A Cap Trajectory Steepened Part Way Through a Phase
  2. A Loosened Cap and the Surplus That Stops Earning
  3. Free Allocation Benchmarks Tightened Against Your Installations
  4. Allocation Withdrawn From a Plant That Cut Production
  5. A Supply Withholding Reserve Triggered Against Your Position
  6. An Auction Calendar Changed Under a Procurement Plan
  7. Banking and Carry-Over Restricted Between Phases
  8. A Vintage Validity Window Shortened
  9. New Sectors Brought Under an Existing Cap
  10. A Price Containment Mechanism and What It Does to Cover
  11. A Cap Shock Traced Through One Illustrative Compliance Book
M3 Rule Change: Eligibility, Recognition and Linkage Ch 33-43
  1. Eligibility as a Switch Somebody Else Holds
  2. A Credit Type Excluded From a Compliance Scheme
  3. A Quantitative Limit Placed on Credit Use
  4. A Crediting Programme Losing Standing With Buyers
  5. A Methodology Withdrawn While Your Pipeline Runs
  6. A Methodology Revised and Applied Backwards
  7. Two Schemes Linking and a Position Priced Apart
  8. Two Schemes Delinking and the Units Left on One Side
  9. A Border Charge Changing Who Must Hold Allowances
  10. A Corresponding Adjustment Withdrawn by a Host Country
  11. An Eligibility Shock Traced Through One Illustrative Credit Book
M4 Designing a Policy Shock Without Forecasting Ch 44-53
  1. From a Legislative Step to a Testable Assumption
  2. Reading a Consultation as Branches, Not a Prediction
  3. Three Dates Every Policy Shock Has
  4. The Shock That Reaches Backwards
  5. Transitional Provisions and the Softened Shock
  6. Severity Without Probability
  7. Combining a Supply Change With a Demand Change
  8. The Favourable Shock You Still Have to Test
  9. Keeping a Policy Assumption Set Current
  10. A Policy Assumption Set Written for One Illustrative Desk
M5 A Reversal Reaches the Book Ch 54-64
  1. The Morning a Reversal Notice Arrives
  2. Fire Loss on a Forest Project You Bought From
  3. Pest, Disease and the Slow Reversal
  4. Harvest, Clearance and the Deliberate Reversal
  5. Soil Carbon Lost to a Change of Practice
  6. Leakage Detected at a Geological Storage Site
  7. Where the Loss Stops When a Buffer Pool Absorbs It
  8. The Shortfall a Pool Does Not Cover
  9. A Reversal Behind a Claim Already Published
  10. One Weather Event Across Several Projects at Once
  11. A Reversal Traced Through One Illustrative Removal Holding
M6 Invalidation, Suspension and the Unit That Stops Counting Ch 65-74
  1. Invalidation Is Not the Same Event as Reversal
  2. A Registry Cancelling Units After Issuance
  3. Double Issuance Found Across Two Programmes
  4. A Verifier Suspended and a Cohort in Doubt
  5. A Project Suspended Pending Investigation
  6. A Research Finding That Moves Before Any Ruling
  7. A Ratings Downgrade on Units You Hold
  8. An Account Frozen With Your Units Inside
  9. Units Sitting in an Intermediary's Pooled Account
  10. An Invalidation Traced Through One Illustrative Portfolio
M7 Counterparty Failure on a Carbon Book Ch 75-85
  1. The Carbon Counterparties and the Shape of Each Failure
  2. A Developer Insolvent Before First Issuance
  3. A Developer Who Issues and Sells Elsewhere
  4. A Long-Dated Offtake Counterparty in Administration
  5. Prepaid Money and a Place in the Queue
  6. A Host Government That Changes Its Mind
  7. An Intermediary Failing Between Transfer and Retirement
  8. A Clearing Member Failure on an Allowance Position
  9. Your Own Buyer Failing After You Have Sourced
  10. Stopping Payment Without Giving a Default
  11. The Shortfall a Default Leaves: Tonnes, Vintage and Date
M8 Deadlines, Cash and Collateral Under Shock Ch 86-95
  1. The Surrender Date as the Hardest Date in the Book
  2. A Penalty That Leaves the Duty Standing
  3. A Rally Into an Uncovered Obligation
  4. Variation Margin Called While the Obligation Gets Cheaper
  5. Selling Allowances You Will Need Later
  6. Cash Needed Between a Reversal and Its Replacement
  7. An Approval Route Slower Than the Event
  8. Deciding Which Obligation to Discharge First
  9. Collateral and Credit Terms Tightening at the Wrong Moment
  10. A Funding Squeeze Through One Illustrative Compliance Cycle
M9 Running the Test and Reading the Result Ch 96-106
  1. Choosing What the Test Will Report
  2. Running One Factor Across the Whole Book
  3. Combining Shocks, and Why the Order Matters
  4. Starting From the Tonnage the Desk Cannot Fail to Deliver
  5. Testing the Pipeline, Not Only the Inventory
  6. Where Correlation Assumptions Enter a Carbon Test
  7. Everybody Replacing at the Same Time
  8. How Many Cycles the Book Stays Short
  9. Writing a Result a Board Will Act On
  10. Showing an Auditor How the Number Was Built
  11. The Test That Flatters the Book
M10 Holding Capacity Against Shock Ch 107-115
  1. From a Test Result to a Tolerance Worth Defending
  2. Headroom Held in Allowances Against a Rule Shock
  3. Vintage Spread as a Defence Against a Validity Change
  4. Programme and Methodology Spread Against Invalidation
  5. Replacement Rights Agreed Before a Reversal Happens
  6. Insurance and Indemnity Against Invalidation
  7. Step-In Rights on a Failing Project
  8. A Private Reserve of Units Held Back
  9. What Holding Capacity Costs, and Who Signs For It
M11 A Worked Programme and the Limits Ch 116-126
  1. The Illustrative Desk: Book, Duties and Claims Outstanding
  2. A Stress Year, Part One: The Consultation Lands
  3. A Stress Year, Part Two: Eligibility Narrows
  4. A Stress Year, Part Three: Fire in the Removal Holding
  5. A Stress Year, Part Four: The Developer Files
  6. A Stress Year, Part Five: The Surrender Date Arrives
  7. A Stress Year, Part Six: Counting What It Cost
  8. Judging the Decisions by What Was Known
  9. What Carbon Stress Testing Cannot Tell You
  10. The Arguments This Material Leaves Open
  11. The Stress Programme a Carbon Desk Now Owns

The brochure gives each of these 126 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 19 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Emissions and Carbon Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway