Source the price. Build the curve. Defend the valuation.
Master energy market data and forward curve construction: exchange, broker and assessment sources, validation, bootstrapping, illiquid tenors, shaping, basis, interpolation, arbitrage checks, approval and publication into the ETRM.
Market data · Bootstrapping · Shaping · Basis · Illiquid tenors · Arbitrage checks · ETRM publication
Cumulative, not modular
Chapter 130 should be impossible to complete properly without the artefacts built in the chapters before it. The programme follows one continuous fictional firm, NorthStar Energy Trading, so relationships between trades, positions, agreements, exposures and decisions accumulate rather than reset.
The learning chain
The technical build
NorthStar Energy Trading is a fictional firm created for teaching. It does not describe any real company, person or investigation.
11 modules · 130 chapters
M0 Market Data & Curve Desk Primer Ch 1–8 · 8 chapters
Establish the end-to-end curve operating model
- What an Energy Market Data & Curve Function Actually Does
- Why ETRM Systems Need Forward Curves
- Spot Prices, Forward Prices and Forecasts
- Observable Prices vs Derived Prices
- Anatomy of a Production Forward Curve
- Front Office, Risk and Accounting Curves
- The Curve Construction Lifecycle
- NorthStar End-to-End Curve Operating Model
M1 Energy Market Data Foundations Ch 9–20 · 12 chapters
Build the raw market-data layer
- Energy Market Data Taxonomy
- Exchange Trades and Settlement Prices
- Broker and OTC Quotes
- Price Reporting Agency Assessments
- Bid, Ask, Mid and Executable Price
- Market Data Timestamps
- Units, Currencies and Conversions
- Commodity Calendars and Delivery Periods
- Instrument Master for Curve Construction
- Market Data Source Hierarchies
- Stale, Missing and Conflicting Prices
- Building the NorthStar Market Data Golden Record
M2 Forward Curve Mathematics & Bootstrapping Ch 21–32 · 12 chapters
Turn observations into term structures
- Forward Price Term Structure
- Carry Economics
- Delivery-Period Weighting
- Overlapping Forward Instruments
- Bootstrapping Fundamentals
- Quarter-to-Month Decomposition
- Calendar-to-Quarter Decomposition
- Season Contracts
- Curve Knot Selection
- Piecewise Forward Curves
- Curve Reconciliation
- Building NorthStar's Generic Bootstrap Engine
M3 European Gas Forward Curve Construction Ch 33–46 · 14 chapters
Build the first production commodity curve
- European Gas Curve Anatomy
- TTF Curve Inputs
- Prompt Gas Curve
- Monthly TTF Curve
- Quarterly Gas Bootstrapping
- Summer/Winter Gas Shaping
- Calendar-Year Gas Curve
- Long-Dated Gas Tenors
- TTF Forward Curve Reconciliation
- NBP Forward Curve
- TTF–NBP Basis Curve
- Gas Location Curves
- Gas Curve Stress and Sensitivity
- NorthStar Gas Curve Production Run
M4 Power Forward Curve Construction & Hourly Shaping Ch 47–62 · 16 chapters
Move from monthly forwards to hourly valuation curves
- Why Power Curves Are Fundamentally Different
- European Power Product Structure
- Baseload Forward Curve
- Peakload Forward Curve
- Base–Peak Relationship
- Quarterly and Annual Power Bootstrapping
- Monthly Power Shape
- Day-of-Week Shaping
- Hour-of-Day Shaping
- Holiday and Special-Day Effects
- Renewable Generation Effects
- Negative Price Regimes
- Spark and Clean Spark Relationships
- German–French Power Basis
- Hourly Forward Curve Validation
- NorthStar Power Curve Production Run
M5 Oil, Products, LNG & Emissions Curves Ch 63–76 · 14 chapters
Extend the engine across different commodity structures
- Crude Oil Forward Curve Anatomy
- Brent Futures Curve
- Contango, Backwardation and Calendar Spreads
- Physical Crude Differentials
- Refined Product Curves
- Oil Curve Control Framework
- LNG Pricing Architecture
- JKM Forward Curve
- LNG Shipping-Adjusted Netback Curves
- TTF–JKM Relationship
- EUA Forward Curve
- Cross-Commodity Forward Relationships
- FX in Commodity Curves
- NorthStar Multi-Commodity Curve Pack
M6 Basis, Spreads & Curve Shaping Ch 77–88 · 12 chapters
Model relationships without hiding them
- Understanding Basis Risk
- Location Basis Curves
- Quality Basis Curves
- Temporal Basis
- Product Basis
- Additive vs Multiplicative Shaping
- Shape Factor Estimation
- Shape Normalization
- Dynamic Shape Models
- Basis and Shape Stress Testing
- Shape Versioning and Governance
- NorthStar Basis & Shape Library
M7 Illiquid Tenors, Interpolation & Extrapolation Ch 89–100 · 12 chapters
Build what the market does not directly quote
- The Illiquid Curve Problem
- Linear Interpolation
- Log-Linear Interpolation
- Cubic Spline Interpolation
- Monotone and Shape-Preserving Methods
- Interpolation in Spread Space
- Fundamental Anchors for Illiquid Tenors
- Historical Shape Anchors
- Long-End Extrapolation
- Liquidity Classification
- Method Comparison and Sensitivity
- NorthStar Illiquid Curve Framework
M8 Curve Quality, Arbitrage & Settlement Controls Ch 101–112 · 12 chapters
Make the curve defensible
- Market Data Quality Dimensions
- Price Outlier Detection
- Stale Price Detection
- Source Conflict Resolution
- Calendar Arbitrage Checks
- Cross-Curve Arbitrage Checks
- Monotonicity: When Not to Enforce It
- Settlement Price Controls
- Manual Price Overrides
- Curve Approval Workflow
- Historical Curve Reproduction
- NorthStar Curve Quality & Arbitrage Engine
M9 Curve Governance, ETRM & Production Architecture Ch 113–122 · 10 chapters
Move from algorithms to enterprise production
- Curve Master Data
- Curve Versioning
- Market Data Lineage
- Curve Configuration Management
- ETRM Curve Integration
- Valuation and P&L Impact
- Curve Change Management
- Batch Curve Architecture
- Intraday & Event-Driven Curve Architecture
- Building the NorthStar Production Curve Platform
M10 NorthStar Curve Construction Capstone Ch 123–130 · 8 chapters
Build and defend the production curve set
- Capstone Market Close
- Build the Market Data Golden Record
- Construct Gas & Basis Curves
- Construct Power & Hourly Curves
- Construct Oil, LNG & Emissions Curves
- Detect the Hidden Curve Problems
- Publish and Revalue the ETRM Portfolio
- Senior Curve Committee Defence
Three ways to take Energy Market Data & Forward Curve Construction
| Feature | Self-paced | Cohort | Enterprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Format | Written chapters, video explainers and podcasts | Everything in self-paced, plus scheduled live sessions | Everything in cohort, delivered privately to your team |
| Live sessions | None | Scheduled, instructor-led | Scheduled, instructor-led, private |
| Mentorship | Not offered | Not offered | Not offered |
| Access | Lifetime | Lifetime | Lifetime for every enrolled seat |
| Pace | Entirely your own | Guided schedule with a peer group | Agreed with your desk |
| Tailoring | Fixed curriculum | Fixed curriculum | Sequenced to your markets, systems and governance |
| Best for | Individuals learning around a job | Individuals who want structure and deadlines | Desks building the same capability together |
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