Course 09 of 20 · Hydrogen Desk Academy

Input-Cost Risk & Feasible Hedging

Stage C, Exposure, delivery and derivative demand. Level 5 of 10.

Identifying which input and output exposures the signed contracts create, and testing which can actually be hedged with instruments that trade today.

123 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 03, Course 04, Course 08

Enrol or enquire See the 123 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 123 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 What the Signed Contracts Actually Expose Ch 1-10
  1. The Exposure a Hydrogen Project Owns the Day It Signs
  2. Input Legs and Output Legs Kept on Separate Lines
  3. No Reference Price Means No Matching Instrument
  4. Feasibility Tested Before Any Volume Is Discussed
  5. The Working Exposure Sheet Every Later Decision Reads
  6. Five Mismatches That Recur on Every Hydrogen Position
  7. Residual Exposure Defined for a Hydrogen Book
  8. Who Carries the Leftover When Nobody Volunteers
  9. What Feasible Cover Can and Cannot Promise
  10. How This Material Is Ordered
M1 The Instruments a Hydrogen Desk Can Actually Transact Ch 11-21
  1. The Working Set of Instruments This Desk Can Deal
  2. Block Power Products and What They Were Built For
  3. A Gas Contract Standing Behind a Hydrogen Price
  4. Allowance Futures as a Tradable Input Cover
  5. An Assessment Is Not an Offer to Trade
  6. Where the Power Curve Stops Being Quoted
  7. The Width You Pay Simply to Open a Position
  8. Who Will Quote the Other Side to a Hydrogen Project
  9. A Megawatt Hour Contract Against a Kilogramme Obligation
  10. Clearing House, Credit Annexe or Broker Confirmation
  11. Transport and Storage Cost Named and Handed On
M2 The Power Leg the Procurement Contract Left Open Ch 22-31
  1. The Producer Is Short Power Until Its Megawatt Hours Are Priced
  2. Reading the Open Megawatt Hours Out of a Signed Agreement
  3. Covering the Grid-Supplied Top-Up
  4. A Floating PPA Leg Hedged in Listed Futures
  5. Zonal and Nodal Prices Against a National Contract
  6. Area Price Differentials as a Tradable Basis
  7. Stack Degradation Moves the Megawatt Hours per Kilogramme
  8. Network Charges the Market Will Not Quote
  9. A Power Hedge Sized and Placed, Step by Step
  10. What Remains After the Power Leg Is Covered
M3 An Hourly Load Against Block Instruments Ch 32-40
  1. Why a Flat Block Does Not Cover a Variable Load
  2. The Shape Premium Named as a Position
  3. When the Shape Works For the Plant and When Against
  4. Peak and Off-Peak Blocks Combined to Approximate a Profile
  5. The Hours No Listed Contract Reaches
  6. Asking a Dealer to Quote a Profiled Volume
  7. A Load Factor Assumption Carried Into a Hedge Volume
  8. Curtailed Hours and the Cover Left Standing
  9. The Shape Exposure Stated Rather Than Solved
M4 The Revenue Leg and Its Proxy Index Ch 41-51
  1. The Seller Holds the Index Its Price Formula Names
  2. The Buyer Under the Same Formula Sits the Other Way
  3. Hedging a Gas-Indexed Hydrogen Revenue Line
  4. A Premium Position Inherited by Hedging in Gas
  5. Hedging a Power-Indexed Revenue Line
  6. The Pass-Through Index Against the Price Actually Paid
  7. An Ammonia-Indexed Revenue Leg Tested for Cover
  8. A Methanol-Linked Price and Its Observable Competitor
  9. Hedging a Formula That Averages Over Many Months
  10. A Floor in the Offtake Valued Scenario by Scenario
  11. Laying Off a Written Cap in Instruments That Exist
M5 The Reforming Pathway's Gas and Allowance Legs Ch 52-61
  1. A Reformer Operator Is Short Gas and Short Allowances
  2. Covering Feedstock Gas on the Dates the Plant Burns It
  3. Hub Gas Futures Against a Delivered Feedstock Price
  4. Sizing the Allowance Purchase a Residual Emission Creates
  5. Allowance Futures Bought Against a Compliance Calendar
  6. The Carbon Price That Helps and Hurts the Same Project
  7. The Electrolytic Plant That Still Buys Allowances
  8. The Spread Between Feedstock Gas and Allowance Cost
  9. A Capture Rate That Did Not Hold
  10. What the Reforming Pathway Still Carries After Cover
M6 Currency, Inflation and the Quiet Legs Ch 62-70
  1. Costs in One Currency, Revenue in Another
  2. Hedging a Construction Payment Schedule in Forwards
  3. A Fifteen-Year Receivable and a Liquid Currency Market
  4. An Escalation Clause Read as an Inflation Position
  5. Inflation Swaps as a Genuine Instrument Here
  6. When the Index in the Clause Is Not the Index Traded
  7. Water, Catalyst and Stack Replacement
  8. Oxygen and Heat Revenue With No Market to Hedge
  9. A Certificate Revenue Leg and Its Thin Market
M7 Sizing What the Cover Leaves Behind Ch 71-80
  1. Defining the Gap in Money per Kilogramme
  2. Constructing a Record of a Gap Nobody Quotes
  3. Cleaning the Series Before Anyone Relies On It
  4. Turning a Difference Range Into a Figure per Kilogramme
  5. Scaling One Year to a Contract Term
  6. Estimating a Cover Volume From the Record
  7. A Fitted Ratio Treated as Evidence
  8. Pricing the Retained Gap Into the Delivered Offer
  9. The One Page That Shows What the Project Still Carries
  10. Choosing Which Gaps to Pay Away and Which to Keep
M8 The Relationship Every Substitute Rests On Ch 81-91
  1. The Tendency a Proxy Hedge Is Betting On
  2. Measuring How a Cost Leg and Its Cover Move Together
  3. One Number, Four Samples, Four Conclusions
  4. Calm Samples Manufacture False Confidence
  5. What Breaks the Link Between Hydrogen and Gas
  6. What Breaks the Link Between Hydrogen and Power
  7. Tracing a Decoupling Week Through the Bank Account
  8. Shocking the Difference While the Levels Stay Put
  9. A Money Cap on Each Approved Instrument
  10. Early Signs That a Substitute Has Stopped Working
  11. Switching a Live Hedge to a Different Benchmark
M9 What Has No Instrument, and What Answers Instead Ch 92-102
  1. The Hydrogen Price Itself Cannot Be Hedged
  2. A Thin Market Is Not the Same as No Market
  3. Demand That May Not Appear
  4. Support Payments Nobody Will Quote Forward
  5. Regulated Charges and the Clause That Answers Them
  6. Plant Performance Risk With No Paper Answer
  7. Counterparty Failure Is a Credit Question, Not a Hedge
  8. Permitting and Grid Connection Delay
  9. The Term That Outruns the Energy Curves
  10. Covering the Quotable Years and Declaring the Rest
  11. Contract Terms as the Instrument of Last Resort
M10 The Cash a Correct Hedge Demands Ch 103-112
  1. Daily Margin Against a Monthly Hydrogen Invoice
  2. A Hedge Placed Before the Project Earns Anything
  3. The Power Hedge Calls Cash While the Plant Is Still Being Built
  4. Initial Margin as a Charge on Project Liquidity
  5. A Bilateral Hedge and the Credit Support Annexe Behind It
  6. A Hedge the Lender Will and Will Not Allow
  7. Forecasting the Worst Call Before Placing the Trade
  8. Cover Lifted by a Funding Squeeze
  9. Explaining a Correct Hedge Loss to a Lender
  10. Reported Profit Moving While the Cost Is Steady
M11 One Contract Set Hedged, and the Residual Stated Ch 113-123
  1. The Worked Case, Part One: Reading the Signed Set
  2. The Worked Case, Part Two: Natural Offsets First
  3. The Worked Case, Part Three: Choosing Each Instrument
  4. The Worked Case, Part Four: A Year of Movement
  5. The Worked Case, Part Five: Where the Money Went
  6. The Worked Case, Part Six: The Residual Stated
  7. Judging a Hedge on What Was Knowable at the Time
  8. A Hedging Mandate for a Hydrogen Project
  9. The Simplifications Used Here, and What Defeats Them
  10. What Feasible Hedging Cannot Do, and Where Each Gap Goes
  11. Where the Hedged Project Goes Next

The brochure gives each of these 123 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 9 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Hydrogen Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway