Customer Conversion & Willingness to Pay
Stage C, Exposure, delivery and derivative demand. Level 6 of 10.
The buyer-side capital and operating cost of switching, and how to establish and evidence a willingness to pay rather than assume one.
121 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 01, Course 07, Course 08
One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use
Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.
Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.
11 modules · 121 chapters
Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.
M0 What Switching Actually Asks of a Buyer Ch 1-10
- Conversion as a Capital Decision Inside the Buyer's Plant
- The Two Seats in a Conversion Conversation
- Why an Announced Intention Is Not a Market
- A Substitution at an Existing Process Step
- The Incumbent Arrangement the Buyer Would Leave
- The Questions a Switching Case Must Answer
- The Vocabulary of an Industrial Capital Process
- What Public Reporting Reveals About a Prospective User
- Why Two Comparable Sites Reach Opposite Conclusions
- How This Material Is Built and Where It Stops
M1 The Buyer's Switching Capital Ch 11-22
- Scoping the Capital From the Consuming Process Step
- Burner, Reactor and Furnace Modification
- Receiving, Metering and Compression at the Fence
- Buffer Storage the Buyer Has to Fund
- Hazard Study, Safety Case and Site Consent
- Materials Compatibility and the Embrittlement Survey
- Utility Upgrades the Change Drags In
- The Outage Window and the Production Lost in It
- Retaining the Incumbent Input as a Costed Option
- Phasing the Change Across Several Units
- Estimating Classes and What the Seller Is Being Shown
- A Switching Capital Sheet, Illustrative
M2 The Change in the Buyer's Running Costs Ch 23-33
- Dividing One-Off Spend From Permanent Cost Change
- Energy Consumed Before and After the Switch
- Maintenance, Inspection and Spares Afterwards
- Insurance and the Site's Revised Risk Rating
- Throughput, Yield and Product Quality Effects
- The Incumbent Input Cost That Stops Being Paid
- Compliance Carbon Cost the Buyer Avoids
- Border Measures and the Buyer That Exports
- Support That Reduces the User's Cost Directly
- Stranded Value in the Equipment Left Idle
- A Year of Running Costs Compared, Illustrative
M3 Breakeven, Hurdle and the Affordable Ceiling Ch 34-44
- Turning Switching Cost Into an Affordable Price
- The Buyer's Hurdle Rate Is Not the Seller's
- Payback Period as the Screen Actually Used
- Spreading Conversion Spend Over Contracted Volume
- Who Funds the Plant Modification
- Seller Contribution as a Priced Concession
- The Affordable Ceiling Against the Delivered Cost Floor
- How Far the Ceiling Moves With the Incumbent Price
- Cost Per Tonne Abated as an Internal Yardstick
- The Competing Project That Takes the Capital Instead
- One Breakeven Argued From Both Seats, Illustrative
M4 The Buyer's Internal Decision Route Ch 45-55
- Charting the Chain of Internal Consents
- The Technical Authority Who Accepts the Plant Change
- The Operations Seat Protecting Availability
- Procurement Facing a Spend Category That Is New
- What Finance Requires Before Releasing Funds
- The Safety Authority and the Late Veto
- The Sponsor Who Wants It and Holds No Budget
- Winning the Study Authorisation First
- The Investment Approval Calendar
- Who Can Actually Bind the Purchaser
- Inferring a Decision Route You Were Not Shown
M5 What Would Make a Buyer Pay More Ch 56-67
- Three Kinds of Reason a Purchaser Accepts a Higher Cost
- A Use Obligation Placed on the Buyer
- Qualifying Conditions as the Hidden Test
- A Fuel Standard That Rewards Refinery Hydrogen
- The Purchaser's Own Customer as the Real Source
- Does a Voluntary Commitment Become a Premium? The Argument
- Which Emissions Boundary the Reduction Falls In
- Disclosure Duties as a Weak Purchasing Driver
- Future Carbon Cost and the Discount Applied to It
- Operating Consent, Permits and Local Pressure
- The Buyer With Every Driver That Still Does Not Transact
- Ranking One Purchaser's Drivers, Illustrative
M6 Evidencing a Willingness to Pay Ch 68-79
- The Evidence Ladder From Remark to Signature
- What a Letter of Intent Creates
- An Understanding Signed by the Wrong Seat
- A Funded Feasibility Study as the First Hard Signal
- Reading a Capital Plan for the Conversion Line
- What a Conditional Agreement Actually Proves
- Eliciting a Price Where No Reference Exists
- Designing the Willingness Interview
- Triangulating a Claimed Price Against the Buyer's Economics
- Netting a Pipeline Without Double Counting
- Recording Evidence So a Third Party Can Audit It
- Reporting That Willingness Falls Short of Announcements
M7 From Interest to a Commitment That Holds Ch 80-90
- Sequencing the Conversion Conversation
- Qualifying a Prospect Before Spending On It
- What a Pilot Volume Proves
- Bridging the Outage Slot to the Start Date
- Interim Supply From a Conventional Source
- The Standoff Over Price Before Engineering
- Turning a Study Result Into a Commercial Position
- Protections a Purchaser Demands Against Unbuilt Supply
- When the Internal Champion Leaves
- Negotiating With a Counterparty Lacking Authority
- Walking Away From a Prospect That Will Not Convert
M8 Buyer Segments and the Conversion Pipeline Ch 91-101
- Segmenting Prospects by What Switching Costs Them
- The User Already Buying Merchant Hydrogen
- The User That Makes Hydrogen On Its Own Site
- The Ammonia Plant Seen Purely as a Purchaser
- The Methanol Plant Seen Purely as a Purchaser
- The High-Temperature Heat User
- A Process With No Hydrogen in It Today
- The User Behind a Public Procurement Requirement
- Small Consumers, Aggregation and the Cost of Service
- Building and Maintaining the Conversion Register
- Pipeline Reporting That Does Not Mislead
M9 Arguments That Are Not Settled Ch 102-111
- Will First Movers Be Followed? The Assumptions
- Who Should Fund the Plant Change? The Allocation Argument
- Can a Higher Input Cost Survive Competition?
- Does the Cost Reach the Final Consumer?
- Obliging Users Against Paying Them
- Long Terms Against Short Ones From the Buyer's Seat
- Is Converting Now Cheaper Than Waiting?
- Should Announced Demand Enter a Business Case?
- The Willing Purchaser That Cannot Be Supplied
- How a Dishonest Conversion Case Is Built
M10 Worked Conversions and the Limits of the Method Ch 112-121
- One Purchaser's Conversion, Part One: Scoping the Switch
- One Purchaser's Conversion, Part Two: Internal Sanction
- One Purchaser's Conversion, Part Three: The Price Position
- A Conversion Correctly Abandoned
- Two Prospects Competing for One Volume
- The Conversion Evidence Pack Handed Onward
- Reconciling the Ceiling With an Indexation Structure
- Where Willingness Ends and Flexibility Begins
- What This Method Cannot Establish
- Reviewing Somebody Else's Conversion Case
The brochure gives each of these 121 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.
This is course 13 of twenty
It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Hydrogen Desk Academy pathway.