Course 19 of 20 · Hydrogen Desk Academy

Project Delay, Counterparty & Policy Stress

Stage E, Stress and decision. Level 9 of 10.

Stress testing delay, counterparty failure and policy reversal together, and setting the trigger levels at which a position is renegotiated or deferred.

129 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 09, Course 14, Course 17, Course 18

Enrol or enquire See the 129 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 129 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 Three Stresses That Have Already Happened Ch 1-10
  1. Delay, Default and Reversal as the Central Cases
  2. Why Delay Has No Price You Can Hedge
  3. Deferral and Renegotiation as Competent Outcomes
  4. An Assumption Traced, Not a Future Predicted
  5. The First Number a Stress Result Reports Is a Date
  6. Who Reads the Result and What Each One Needs
  7. A Trigger Is a Level Agreed Before the Argument
  8. The Words a Stressed Development Uses
  9. What This Material Takes as Already Held
  10. The Route From Dependency Map to Trigger Level
M1 The Dependency Map of a Hydrogen Development Ch 11-21
  1. Writing Every Commitment Against the Date It Needs
  2. The Critical Path and the Items That Are Not On It
  3. A Grid Connection Date You Do Not Control
  4. The Electrolyser Order and Its Delivery Slot
  5. Consents the Project Cannot Start Without
  6. The Buyer's Own Conversion Project as Your Dependency
  7. Shared Failure Points Behind Unrelated Commitments
  8. Commitments That Rest on a Rule Staying in Place
  9. Where a Substitute Exists and Where One Source Is Named
  10. How Long Each Dependency Takes to Repair
  11. Keeping the Dependency Register Alive Between Reviews
M2 Delay in the Project Itself Ch 22-32
  1. What Sits Behind the Production Start Date
  2. Power Arriving After the Plant, or the Plant After the Power
  3. Stack Delivery Slipping Through the Supply Chain
  4. A Consent Appeal and the Clock That Stops
  5. Staying Pre-Sanction Longer Than Planned
  6. The Milestone Reported Complete and the Work Behind It
  7. Commissioning Longer Than the Schedule Allowed
  8. A Ramp That Starts Below the Contracted Rate
  9. Water, Utilities and the Connection Nobody Scheduled
  10. Delay Downstream: Storage, Pipeline or Conversion Unit
  11. A Schedule Delay Traced Through One Illustrative Build
M3 What Delay Does to a Signed Contract Set Ch 33-42
  1. The Start Date Window the Offtake Actually Allows
  2. Delay Damages and the Loss They Do Not Reach
  3. A Power Contract Starting Before There Is Any Load
  4. A Minimum Supply Obligation Running From a Calendar Date
  5. Capacity Reserved and Paid For Before First Molecule
  6. Conditions Precedent With an Expiry Date
  7. A Drawdown Stopped and the Construction Funding Gap
  8. A Cover Ratio Tested Against Later First Revenue
  9. A Stage Gate Reached Late in a Development Agreement
  10. A Delay Cascade Through One Illustrative Contract Set
M4 Counterparty Failure on the Supply Side Ch 43-52
  1. The Parties You Depend On and the Shape of Each Failure
  2. An Equipment Maker in Trouble Before Delivery
  3. A Contractor Failing Part Way Through Construction
  4. The Electricity Supplier You Still Need
  5. A Partner That Misses a Capital Call
  6. A Certification Body Suspended and the Evidence in Doubt
  7. A Warranty Worth Only as Much as Its Giver
  8. A Lender Withdrawing After Credit Approval
  9. Withholding a Milestone Payment While You Investigate
  10. What a Supply-Side Failure Cost, in Months
M5 Counterparty Failure on the Demand Side Ch 53-62
  1. The Buyer Whose Own Investment Was Never Sanctioned
  2. A Refinery Buyer Changing Its Compliance Route
  3. An Ammonia Buyer Returning to Conventional Supply
  4. A Parent Guarantee Withdrawn or Downgraded
  5. The Buyer That Takes Delivery and Does Not Pay
  6. An Offtaker in Administration and the Plant Still Running
  7. A Letter of Intent That Was Never an Offtake
  8. A Buyer Invoking Change of Law Against You
  9. The Offtake That Survives but Shrinks
  10. Measuring the Hole a Lost Buyer Leaves
M6 Policy Reversal Arriving at a Point in the Schedule Ch 63-73
  1. The Same Reversal at Three Points in a Project's Life
  2. A Change Reaching a Project Already Awarded Support
  3. Eligibility Narrowed After You Designed to the Rule
  4. A Scheduled Tightening You Can Test Today
  5. An Allocation Round Postponed While Fees Run
  6. An Instrument Restructured Between Award and Signature
  7. A Budget Decision Reaching a Scheme Already Published
  8. A Mandate Deferred and the Willingness to Pay With It
  9. A Tax Credit Rule Settled Differently From the Assumption
  10. A Network Charge Relief Withdrawn
  11. When Stronger Support Creates a Commercial Problem
M7 Testing the Three Together Ch 74-84
  1. Why Testing One Stress at a Time Flatters a Project
  2. The Correlation Nobody Puts in the Model
  3. Order Matters: Delay Then Reversal, Reversal Then Delay
  4. A Delay That Turns a Survivable Cut Into a Fatal One
  5. Choosing Which Dependencies Fail Together
  6. Severity Graded by Size of Change, Not by Likelihood
  7. Reverse Testing: What Combination Would Stop This Project
  8. How Long the Project Stays Unviable
  9. Pre-Sanction and Under Construction Are Different Tests
  10. Everyone Renegotiating at the Same Time
  11. A Combined Stress Traced Through One Illustrative Project
M8 Trigger Levels Ch 85-96
  1. What a Trigger Is and What It Is Not
  2. Choosing an Observable Somebody Can Check
  3. A Schedule Trigger Measured Against a Baseline
  4. A Capital Cost Trigger Against the Sanctioned Number
  5. A Revenue-Side Trigger on Award, Offtake and Buyer Sanction
  6. A Counterparty Trigger on Standing and Performance
  7. A Policy Trigger That Waits for an Adopted Text
  8. Setting the Level So There Is Still Time to Act
  9. One Trigger, Three Responses
  10. Who the Trigger Notifies and What Authority It Carries
  11. The Trigger That Fires Constantly and the One That Sleeps
  12. A Trigger Set Written for One Illustrative Project
M9 Renegotiating a Position Ch 97-106
  1. Renegotiation as a Planned Outcome
  2. Deciding What to Ask For: Date, Volume, Price or Term
  3. Asking the Offtaker to Move the Start Date
  4. Moving the Start of Electricity Delivery
  5. Reopening a Price Formula After a Support Change
  6. Trading Volume for Term, and Term for Price
  7. What You Have to Give to Get a Later Date
  8. Renegotiating Under a Lender's Consent Requirement
  9. The Refusal and What It Tells You
  10. A Renegotiation Worked Through to a Signed Amendment
M10 Deferral, Cold Storage and the Orderly Stop Ch 107-117
  1. Deferral as a Decision Rather Than a Drift
  2. What a Deferred Development Costs Each Month
  3. Which Dependencies You Pay to Keep Alive
  4. Letting Something Lapse on Purpose
  5. Keeping the Buyer Engaged Through a Deferral
  6. Holding a Joint Venture Together While Nothing Happens
  7. Keeping a Support Award, or Handing It Back
  8. The Restart Test Written Before You Stop
  9. Phasing Down Instead of Stopping
  10. The Orderly Stop and What Is Salvageable
  11. A Deferral Decision Worked and Recorded
M11 A Worked Stress Programme and the Limits Ch 118-129
  1. The Illustrative Project: Contracts, Schedule and Structure
  2. A Stress Year, Part One: The Stacks Are Late
  3. A Stress Year, Part Two: The Buyer Will Not Sanction
  4. A Stress Year, Part Three: The Support Rule Narrows
  5. A Stress Year, Part Four: Working the Fired Triggers
  6. A Stress Year, Part Five: Renegotiate, Then Defer
  7. A Stress Year, Part Six: Attributing the Outcome
  8. Reviewing a Decision Against the Information Held
  9. What This Stress Testing Cannot Tell You
  10. Three Questions This Material Does Not Settle
  11. The Simplifications Made Here on Purpose
  12. The Stress Capability the Desk Now Holds

The brochure gives each of these 129 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 19 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Hydrogen Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway