Course 20 of 20 · Hydrogen Desk Academy

Commercialisation Simulation

Stage E, Stress and decision. Level 10 of 10.

Running a full commercialisation decision end to end and defending proceed, renegotiate, defer or reject against challenge.

128 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 14, Course 16, Course 17, Course 19

Enrol or enquire See the 128 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 128 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Project You Take Over and the Decision You Owe Ch 1-11
  1. Countersigning the Commercialisation Mandate for a Project Company
  2. Four Outcomes, None of Them a Failure
  3. The Electrolysis Project as Your Predecessor Left It
  4. The Grid Connection Offer and the Date It Expires
  5. The Refinery Heads of Terms Nobody Has Priced
  6. The Ammonia Export Memorandum the Partner Sponsored
  7. The Power Supply Term Sheet Still Unsigned
  8. The Lender Mandate Letter and What It Already Assumes
  9. The Development Agreement Stage Gate You Must Reach
  10. The Decision Calendar and the Dates You Cannot Move
  11. The Four Fronts the Investment Committee Will Open
M1 Restating the Inherited Case in Numbers You Will Sign Ch 12-21
  1. Rebuilding the Delivered Cost Stack From Its Own Inputs
  2. The Load Factor the Connection Actually Permits
  3. The Power Price Assumption Nobody Wrote Down
  4. Hourly Matching and the Hours the Electrolyser Stands Idle
  5. The Demand Evidence File Separated From the Demand Narrative
  6. Willingness to Pay: Evidenced, Indicated or Assumed
  7. The Merchant Tail Your Predecessor Put in the Model
  8. Reading the Certification Methodology Before Quoting an Intensity
  9. The Illustrative Base Case and Everything It Is Not
  10. Timestamping the Opening Case Before the First Negotiation
M2 The Anchor Offtake Taken to Terms Ch 22-32
  1. The Refining Counterparty's Draft and the Three Clauses That Decide It
  2. The Take-or-Pay Floor Your Debt Service Requires
  3. The Purity Warranty and the Remedy Standing Behind It
  4. A Price Formula With Nothing Liquid to Reference
  5. Pass-Through of Electricity Cost and the Share the Buyer Refuses
  6. The Reopener the Buyer Demands and the One You Demand Back
  7. Pricing the Flex Band the Buyer Expects for Nothing
  8. Conditions Precedent That Have to Run in Both Directions
  9. The Clause You Refuse in Writing
  10. The Anchor Offtake Renegotiated Rather Than Signed
  11. The Anchor Negotiation Examined Before Any Lender Reads It
M3 The Export Offtake You Decide to Reject Ch 33-43
  1. The Ammonia Buyer's Conditionality Read Line by Line
  2. Rebuilding the Destination Netback From the Buyer's Own Numbers
  3. The Conventional Cargo Your Molecule Has to Beat
  4. The Conversion Capital the Memorandum Quietly Assumes
  5. What Firming the Memorandum Into an Offtake Would Cost
  6. Testing All Four Outcomes Against One Agreement
  7. The Export Offtake Rejected, and the Rejection Written Up
  8. Telling the Partner Who Sponsored the Memorandum
  9. The Rejection Defended Without the Benefit of Hindsight
  10. A Competitor Signs the Agreement You Turned Down
  11. Graded on the Rejection With the Buyer's Later Conduct Withheld
M4 Inputs, Flexibility and the Exposures You Agree to Hold Ch 44-53
  1. Which Signed Exposures Can Be Hedged With Instruments That Trade Today
  2. The Electricity Shape Against the Offtake Shape
  3. Curtailment Hours and the Party Who Pays for Them
  4. Stack Degradation and the Replacement Reserve Nobody Funded
  5. The Storage Right That Bridges One Day Only
  6. The Trucking Agreement and the Loss Term Inside It
  7. The Sensitivity Grid That Decides Which Input Matters
  8. The Unhedgeable Residual, Stated Rather Than Buried
  9. Committing the Input Package and Naming What Stays Open
  10. The Input Decisions Examined With the Plant Unbuilt
M5 Evidence, Certification and the Award That Slips Ch 54-63
  1. The Data Chain the Verifier Will Ask You For
  2. The Intensity Figure the Buyer Wrote Into the Draft
  3. When the Buyer's Requirement and the Scheme Diverge
  4. Reading the Support Mechanism's Own Rules Before Modelling Revenue
  5. The Award Notification Slips by Two Quarters
  6. Revenue Scenarios Without the Support You Assumed
  7. The Scenario That Removes the Case Altogether
  8. What Happens Commercially When the Evidence Fails
  9. Committing the Evidence Plan and Its Weakest Link
  10. The Evidence Decisions Examined Before Any Verifier Attends
M6 The Bankability Gap List Against the Lender Group Ch 64-74
  1. The Gap List You Inherited and the Gaps You Add to It
  2. Debt Longer Than the Offtake You Actually Hold
  3. The Credit Support the Lenders Want From the Buyer's Parent
  4. Reading the Cover Ratio Definition Before Promising One
  5. The Gearing the Lenders Will Offer on This Contract Set
  6. Construction Funding and the Completion Test You Must Pass
  7. The Conditions Precedent the Lenders Add to Yours
  8. The Two Gaps That Will Not Close
  9. The Credit Committee Question You Must Decline to Answer
  10. The Contract Set Renegotiated to Terms a Lender Will Fund
  11. The Bankability Decisions Examined Before Credit Approval
M7 The Joint Venture Stage Gate Ch 75-84
  1. The Reserved Matters List and Which Decisions Are Not Yours
  2. Cost Sharing for a Stage Nobody Budgeted
  3. The Partner Who Will Not Fund the Next Stage
  4. Deadlock Over the Route You Have Already Rejected
  5. Pre-Emption, Exit and the Price of Leaving
  6. The Gate Paper Both Partners Have to Sign
  7. Negotiating Your Own Dilution Rather Than Triggering Default
  8. Partner Conduct That Is Not a Default but Behaves Like One
  9. Committing the Partnership Position Before the Gate Opens
  10. The Partnership Decisions Examined With the Gate Still Open
M8 Delay, Counterparty Failure and Policy Reversal Arriving Together Ch 85-95
  1. The Trigger Levels You Set Before Anything Went Wrong
  2. Event: The Electrolyser Supplier Reprices the Package
  3. Event: The Buyer's Parent Is Downgraded
  4. Event: The Support Scheme Is Reopened for Consultation
  5. Three Shocks Modelled Separately, Then Together
  6. Which Trigger Fires First, and What It Obliges You to Do
  7. The Connection Date You Will Now Miss
  8. Testing Proceed Against the Stressed Case
  9. Pricing a Renegotiation Nobody Will Grant
  10. The Combined Stress Marked on Anticipation
  11. Rebuilding the Case After Three Shocks
M9 The Deferral Taken, Priced and Defended Ch 96-105
  1. Deferring the Decision, and Saying So Plainly
  2. What a Deferral Costs by the Quarter
  3. The Queue Position a Deferral Surrenders
  4. Keeping the Anchor Buyer Alive Through a Pause
  5. Deferral Conditions You Can Genuinely Test
  6. Telling the Lender Group You Are Not Drawing
  7. The Deferral a Committee Will Call Indecision
  8. Defer or Reject: Holding the Distinction
  9. The Correct Deferral That Cost More Than Proceeding
  10. Graded on the Deferral With the Policy Outcome Withheld
M10 The Phase That Proceeds Ch 106-116
  1. Rescoping to a First Phase the Contracts Support
  2. Resizing the Anchor Offtake to the Smaller Plant
  3. The Cost Stack Rebuilt at Reduced Scale
  4. What Phase Two Needs That Phase One Must Not Promise
  5. The Funding Package for a Smaller Project
  6. Proceeding, With the Conditions Named
  7. What Proceeding Commits You To Irreversibly
  8. The Board Paper That Carries All Four Outcomes
  9. The Decision Log You Kept From the First Week
  10. The Proceed Case Attacked by Someone Who Wanted the Pause
  11. Signing the Investment Recommendation
M11 The Defence of Four Outcomes Ch 117-128
  1. Two Pages for Whoever Takes the Commercialisation Seat Next
  2. The Reservation You Noted and Never Wrote Into a Clause
  3. The Panel Takes the Cost Stack and the Power Assumption
  4. The Panel Takes the Demand Evidence and the Willingness to Pay
  5. The Panel Takes the Contract Set and the Lender Terms
  6. The Panel Takes the Rejection
  7. The Panel Takes the Deferral
  8. The Panel Takes the Proceed
  9. All Four Outcomes Challenged at Once
  10. The Challenge That Assumes a Liquid Market Will Arrive
  11. The Forecast You Are Asked For and Will Not Give
  12. What One Commercialisation Cycle Could Not Test

The brochure gives each of these 128 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 20 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Hydrogen Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway