Course 04 of 20 · Natural Gas Desk Academy

Supply, Demand & Weather Fundamentals

Stage A, Gas literacy and measurement. Level 2 of 10.

Building a supply and demand balance from production, sectoral demand, weather variables and inventory signals.

118 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 01, Course 03

Enrol or enquire See the 118 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 118 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 What a Gas Balance Is Ch 1-9
  1. The Balance Identity
  2. Why a Desk Keeps a Balance at All
  3. Choosing the Accounting Boundary
  4. Daily, Monthly and Seasonal Balances Are Different Objects
  5. Sign Conventions and the Discipline of One Workbook
  6. Gross, Marketed and Dry: Three Production Numbers
  7. The Residual Term and What It Absorbs
  8. The Data Estate Behind a Balance
  9. Map of the Work Ahead
M1 Production and Decline Ch 10-20
  1. Production as the Backbone of Supply
  2. Dry Gas, Wet Gas and What Processing Removes
  3. Associated Gas: Output Decided by an Oil Decision
  4. The Decline Curve of a Single Well
  5. Hyperbolic Decline and the Terminal Rate
  6. The Type Curve and Its Honest Use
  7. Base Decline and the Treadmill
  8. Completion Cadence as the Supply Throttle
  9. Uncompleted Well Inventory as a Buffer
  10. Rig and Crew Activity as a Leading Indicator
  11. Planned Maintenance and Involuntary Loss
M2 The Rest of the Supply Side Ch 21-29
  1. Net Imports as a Single Term
  2. Cross-Border Pipeline Flow and Its Rigidity
  3. Imported Cargoes and Terminal Send-Out
  4. Liquefaction Feedgas as a Demand Entry
  5. Lease, Plant and Pipeline Fuel
  6. Unaccounted Volume and Measurement Difference
  7. Ranking the Supply Stack by Responsiveness
  8. A Supply Side Assembled, Part One: The Entries
  9. A Supply Side Assembled, Part Two: The Sensitivities
M3 Weather-Driven Demand and Heating Load Ch 30-39
  1. Residential Heating as the Most Volatile Load
  2. The Boiler, the Thermostat and the Shape of a Day
  3. Commercial and Small Business Heating
  4. Heating Saturation: How Many Premises Burn Gas
  5. Insulation, Efficiency and the Slow Erosion of Load
  6. Water Heating and Cooking: The Base Underneath
  7. Decomposing a Sector Into Base and Response
  8. Wind Chill, Humidity and What Temperature Misses
  9. How Little Heating Offtake Responds to Price
  10. Assembling a Weather-Sensitive Sector
M4 Industrial, Feedstock and Non-Heating Demand Ch 40-48
  1. Industrial Use: Heat, Steam and Process
  2. Feedstock Use Where Gas Becomes a Molecule
  3. Why an Industrial Plant Shuts Down
  4. Fuel Switching at the Industrial Burner
  5. Seasonality in Industrial Load That Is Not Weather
  6. Transport and the Minor Consuming Categories
  7. The Summer Cooling Load
  8. Demand Destruction Against Demand Deferral
  9. The Non-Weather Demand Stack Assembled
M5 Turning Temperature Into Volume Ch 49-59
  1. The Degree Day as a Unit of Cold
  2. Computing a Heating Degree Day
  3. Cooling Degree Days and the Summer Mirror
  4. Why the Base Temperature Is Not Universal
  5. The Nonlinear Tail Where Degree Days Fail
  6. Population Weighting a Temperature Series
  7. Choosing and Defending a Station Set
  8. Fitting Consumption to Degree Days
  9. The Response Coefficient and Its Instability
  10. Reconciling Degree Days With Realised Offtake
  11. Alternatives to the Degree Day
M6 Normal Weather and Normalisation Ch 60-68
  1. What a Normal Year Actually Means
  2. The Reference Period Decision
  3. Mean, Median and the Trouble With Averaging Winters
  4. Climate Trend Inside a Normal
  5. Normalising Observed Offtake to Normal Weather
  6. Reading a Weather-Adjusted Figure Someone Else Produced
  7. Normalisation Errors and How They Compound
  8. Weather Distributions for Forward Work
  9. Communicating Weather Uncertainty Honestly
M7 Electricity Generation as the Swing Consumer Ch 69-79
  1. Why Generation Absorbs the Surprise
  2. The Dispatch Stack in One Page
  3. Heat Rate and the Cost of a Generated Unit
  4. Gas Against Coal: Where the Switch Sits
  5. Carbon Cost Inside the Switching Calculation
  6. The Switching Range and the Offtake It Creates
  7. Renewable Output as a Subtraction From Gas Burn
  8. Nuclear, Hydro and the Rest of the Fleet
  9. Electricity Load Itself as a Gas Driver
  10. Building a Generation Sector Gas Burn Estimate
  11. Where Generation Sector Judgement Goes Wrong
M8 Inventory as the Running Balance Ch 80-89
  1. Inventory as the Accumulated Residual
  2. The Injection Requirement as a Daily Rate
  3. What the Reported Stock Number Leaves Out
  4. The Rate Question a Stock Level Cannot Answer
  5. The Inventory Trajectory as a Coherence Check
  6. Surplus and Deficit Against a Reference Level
  7. End-of-Season Stocks and the Following Year
  8. Reading a Stocks Report Properly
  9. The Implied Flow Calculation
  10. Inventory as Signal, Not as Investment
M9 The Honest Reading of Published Data Ch 90-99
  1. Every Published Number Has a Vintage
  2. Estimate, Preliminary and Final
  3. How Large Revisions Really Get
  4. Sample, Census and the Grossing Factor
  5. Reporting Lags and the Information You Lack
  6. Operator Flow Data as a Faster Proxy
  7. Commercial Data Services and What You Buy
  8. Definitional Traps Between Two Sources
  9. Building a Reconciled History
  10. What Public Statistics Cannot Tell You
M10 Forward Balances Under Weather Uncertainty Ch 100-109
  1. From a Historical Balance to a Forward One
  2. Projecting Production Forward
  3. Projecting Heating Offtake Under a Normal
  4. Cold and Warm Scenarios Built From the Record
  5. Probability-Weighted Balances
  6. The Clearing Point: Which Entry Must Move
  7. Sensitivity, Not Precision
  8. The Rolling Balance and Its Update Discipline
  9. A Forward Balance Worked End to End
  10. Handing a Balance to the People Who Act
M11 Testing a Balance and Its Limits Ch 110-118
  1. Testing a Balance Against Observed Prices
  2. When the Balance and the Market Disagree
  3. Backtesting a Balance Method
  4. Attributing a Projection Miss
  5. The Structural Break That Invalidates a Fit
  6. A Worked Case, Part One: Assembling the Table
  7. A Worked Case, Part Two: The Judgement and the Outcome
  8. What a Balance Cannot Do
  9. Where the Fundamentals Thread Continues

The brochure gives each of these 118 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 4 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Natural Gas Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway