Course 13 of 20 · Natural Gas Desk Academy

Swing, Take-or-Pay & Make-Up Gas

Stage C, Spread, storage and cash economics. Level 6 of 10.

Pricing and administering contractual flexibility: nomination ranges, take-or-pay obligations, make-up and carry-forward entitlements.

122 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 05, Course 10, Course 12

Enrol or enquire See the 122 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 122 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 Flexibility Inside a Contract Ch 1-9
  1. The Right to Change Your Mind About Tomorrow
  2. Two Sources of the Same Freedom
  3. Why the Buyer Pays for Optionality
  4. The Obligation Hiding Behind the Right
  5. A Vocabulary You Will Use Every Day
  6. Who Actually Operates a Flexible Contract
  7. The Contract Year, Not the Calendar Year
  8. What Goes Wrong, and When It Is Noticed
  9. Map of the Course and the Lines It Will Not Cross
M1 The Quantity Architecture Ch 10-19
  1. Annual Contract Quantity as the Spine
  2. Deriving the Daily Contract Quantity
  3. Maximum and Minimum Daily Quantities
  4. The Monthly Band and Why It Exists
  5. Swing Factor as a Single Number
  6. Load Factor and the Shape It Implies
  7. Reading the Quantity Clause Into a Spreadsheet
  8. Seasonal Profiling of the Annual Quantity
  9. Hourly and Within-Day Limits
  10. Two Contracts Side by Side
M2 The Nomination Range as a Right Ch 20-29
  1. Every Nomination Spends Something
  2. The Nomination Plan for a Whole Year
  3. Building the Plan From a Demand Forecast
  4. Headroom and Footroom at Any Moment
  5. When Flexibility Runs Out in November
  6. Revising the Plan Without Losing the Thread
  7. Notice Periods and the Flexibility They Remove
  8. Firm, Interruptible and Conditional Flexibility
  9. Nominating Against Two Contracts at Once
  10. The Nomination Log as Evidence
M3 Take-or-Pay: The Obligation and Its Arithmetic Ch 30-40
  1. Pay for Gas You Did Not Burn
  2. The Minimum Bill Quantity Computed
  3. Shortfall Arithmetic, Step by Step
  4. Which Price Applies to a Deficiency
  5. What a Shortfall Payment Does and Does Not Buy
  6. Excused Quantities and Relief Events
  7. Tracking the Obligation Through the Year
  8. Deciding in July Whether to Take or to Pay
  9. Reselling Surplus Gas to Avoid a Shortfall
  10. The Take-or-Pay Trigger in Cash Terms
  11. A Shortfall Year Reconstructed
M4 Make-Up Gas: Taking Later What You Paid For Ch 41-51
  1. The Entitlement Created by a Shortfall Payment
  2. The Make-Up Bank and How It Is Kept
  3. Make-Up Windows and Expiry
  4. The Conditions Attached to Taking Make-Up
  5. Paying Again, or Not, When You Collect
  6. Does Make-Up Count Towards This Year's Threshold
  7. First In, First Out Across Vintages
  8. Planning a Year Around a Collection
  9. Valuing an Entitlement You May Never Use
  10. Selling or Assigning a Make-Up Balance
  11. A Make-Up Balance Collected in Full
M5 Carry-Forward and the Under-Take Ch 52-60
  1. The Mirror of Make-Up
  2. Earning a Carry-Forward Credit
  3. Applying a Credit to Reduce This Year's Minimum
  4. Caps, Expiry and the Use-It-or-Lose-It Trap
  5. Deliberately Overtaking to Build a Credit
  6. Where the Overtaken Gas Actually Goes
  7. Under-Take Without a Shortfall
  8. The Ledger That Holds Both Balances
  9. Two Balances, One Decision
M6 The Multi-Year Interaction Ch 61-70
  1. Three Years on One Sheet
  2. Collecting Make-Up While Still Owing Take-or-Pay
  3. The Double Payment Error
  4. Rolling Obligations and Reset Dates
  5. A Weak Demand Year Followed by a Strong One
  6. Two Weak Years in a Row
  7. Interaction With the End of the Contract
  8. Accounting for an Entitlement You Hold
  9. Auditing a Contract You Inherited
  10. The Five-Year Position Statement
M7 Valuing the Swing Right Ch 71-81
  1. What Flexibility Is Worth Depends on What It Replaces
  2. Swing Against the Spot Market
  3. Swing Against a Storage Right
  4. Swing Against Holding Extra Transport
  5. Pricing the Swing Premium Out of a Delivered Quote
  6. Intrinsic Value of a Nomination Range
  7. The Optimal Plan Against a Known Curve
  8. Why the Constraint That Binds Sets the Value
  9. Extrinsic Value and Why It Is Deferred
  10. Sensitivity of the Value to the Shape of the Curve
  11. Putting a Number on the Contract You Hold
M8 Rolling Intrinsic Without a Model Ch 82-91
  1. Rebalancing a Plan as the Curve Moves
  2. The Monthly Rebalance, Step by Step
  3. Locking a Gain You Have Found
  4. Rolling Intrinsic Over a Full Year
  5. Why Rebalancing Too Often Loses Money
  6. Ratchets, Notice and the Limits on Re-Solving
  7. Measuring the Performance of the Process
  8. When the Right Thing to Do Is Nothing
  9. What Rolling Intrinsic Cannot See
  10. A Rebalance That Should Not Have Happened
M9 Administering the Contract Year Ch 92-102
  1. The Administration Calendar
  2. Opening the Year
  3. The Monthly Contract Meeting
  4. Declaring Next Month's Quantity
  5. Mid-Year Reforecast and the Hard Conversation
  6. Reconciling Nominated Against Delivered
  7. Year-End Reconciliation, Part One: Establishing the Quantities
  8. Year-End Reconciliation, Part Two: Settling the Balances
  9. Disputing a Shortfall Invoice
  10. The Contract File Nobody Can Read
  11. Handing the Contract Over Cleanly
M10 Renegotiation and the Supplier's Side Ch 103-112
  1. When the Gas Simply Cannot Be Used
  2. Building the Case Before the Meeting
  3. What a Seller Will Trade for Relief
  4. Term Extension as the Usual Currency
  5. Buying Your Way Out
  6. Taking a Flexibility Claim Into a Price Review
  7. The Supplier's Exposure to Your Flexibility
  8. How a Seller Hedges a Swing Obligation
  9. Negotiating From the Other Chair
  10. A Renegotiation Settled
M11 A Worked Contract Year and the Limits Ch 113-122
  1. The Contract and the Book It Serves
  2. Writing the Opening Nomination Plan
  3. Autumn: A Warm Start and the First Rebalance
  4. Winter: A Cold Snap Inside the Band
  5. Spring: The Decision to Take or to Pay
  6. Year-End: Closing the Case Year
  7. The Following Year, and the Recovery
  8. Scoring the Year Honestly
  9. The Questions This Course Cannot Answer
  10. What You Can Now Do With a Flexible Contract

The brochure gives each of these 122 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 13 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Natural Gas Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway