Course 14 of 20 · Natural Gas Desk Academy

Customer Origination & Supply Pricing

Stage D, Customer supply and regional specialisation. Level 7 of 10.

Constructing a customer offer: load-shape costing, pass-through and fixed-price structures, and margin build-up to a quoted supply price.

126 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 05, Course 11, Course 12, Course 13

Enrol or enquire See the 126 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 126 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Sell Side of a Gas Book Ch 1-10
  1. What an Origination Desk Sells
  2. Why the Quoted Price Hides a Build
  3. The Three Promises Inside Any Supply Offer
  4. Who Sits Around a Supply Negotiation
  5. The Customer's Alternative Is Your Ceiling
  6. Win Rate, Margin and the Trade Between Them
  7. The Offer File and Why It Must Survive
  8. An Offer Is Not a Position Until Signed
  9. The Vocabulary of a Supply Quotation
  10. The Capability Being Built Here
M1 Customer Segments and What Each Needs Ch 11-21
  1. The Large Industrial Site
  2. The Gas-Fired Power Generator as a Buyer
  3. Commercial and Small Business Portfolios
  4. Municipal and Resale Wholesale Buyers
  5. District Heating and Campus Loads
  6. Heat-Intensive Process Industries
  7. The Dual-Fuel and Interruptible Customer
  8. The Multi-Site Customer and One Invoice
  9. Broker and Consultant Intermediated Accounts
  10. Reading What a Buyer Actually Wants
  11. Matching Segment to Structure: A Routing Map
M2 Reading and Forecasting a Load Shape Ch 22-34
  1. What a Load Shape Is
  2. The Data You Ask For Before Quoting
  3. Hourly, Daily and Monthly Granularity
  4. Splitting Baseload From Weather-Driven Demand
  5. Fitting the Heating Sensitivity Coefficient
  6. The Non-Weather Drivers of a Shape
  7. The Peak Day and the Design Day
  8. Load Factor and the Swing Ratio
  9. Bad Data, Estimated Reads and Gaps
  10. Normalising a History to Standard Weather
  11. Forecasting Next Year's Shape
  12. Quantifying Forecast Error Honestly
  13. A Shape Reconstructed From Monthly Bills
M3 Costing a Shape, Not a Volume Ch 35-46
  1. Why Annual Volume at an Annual Price Fails
  2. Decomposing a Shape Into Tradeable Blocks
  3. The Residual the Blocks Cannot Cover
  4. Pricing the Seasonal Component
  5. Pricing the Within-Month Variation
  6. What the Peak Day Costs to Cover
  7. Storage Value as an Input to the Offer
  8. Transport Cost Attached to a Shape
  9. The Aggregation Benefit Across Customers
  10. Who Gets the Diversification Credit
  11. A Shape Costed End to End, Part One
  12. A Shape Costed End to End, Part Two
M4 The Cost Stack Behind a Quoted Price Ch 47-59
  1. The Stack as an Ordered Build
  2. Choosing the Commodity Reference
  3. The Shape Premium as a Stack Line
  4. Delivery and Network Charges in the Rate
  5. The Imbalance Risk Charge
  6. The Volume Risk Charge
  7. The Credit Charge Taken as an Input
  8. The Working Capital Charge
  9. Cost to Serve: Billing, Metering and Service
  10. Levies, Taxes and Regulated Pass-Throughs
  11. Risk Capital and the Required Return
  12. Setting the Commercial Margin
  13. The Stack Assembled Into One Rate
M5 Offer Structures and What They Transfer Ch 60-72
  1. The Fixed Price Offer
  2. The Index-Linked Floating Offer
  3. The Pass-Through or Cost-Plus Offer
  4. What Each Structure Actually Transfers
  5. Tranche and Click Fixing Structures
  6. Capped and Collared Price Offers
  7. Tiered Pricing by Volume Band
  8. The Blended Fixed and Floating Offer
  9. The Two-Part Tariff: Capacity Plus Commodity
  10. The Standing Charge and Fixed Fee Element
  11. Multi-Year Offers and the Term Premium
  12. Comparing Two Structures at Equal Value
  13. Writing the Offer Letter
M6 Tolerance, Swing and the Volume Taken Ch 73-83
  1. The Tolerance Band a Customer Expects
  2. Costing a Symmetric Plus or Minus Band
  3. The Asymmetric Band and Why It Is Cheaper
  4. Pricing Unlimited Take
  5. Minimum Take and the Revenue Floor
  6. Pricing the Swing the Customer Takes Unasked
  7. Charging for Volume Beyond the Band
  8. Charging for Volume Below the Band
  9. Interruptibility as a Price Reducer
  10. Seasonal Shape Commitment in the Contract
  11. A Tolerance Package Priced End to End
M7 Quoting Into a Moving Market Ch 84-94
  1. The Validity Window on a Quote
  2. What Happens to the Price While You Wait
  3. Indicative Versus Firm Quotes
  4. Refreshing and Re-Quoting
  5. The Pre-Hedge Decision Before Signature
  6. Quoting Many Sites at Once
  7. Working to the Buyer's Deadline
  8. The Counter-Offer and the Negotiating Ladder
  9. Mandates, Limits and Who May Say Yes
  10. Knowing When to Lose a Deal
  11. A Live Quote Under Pressure, Worked
M8 Tenders, Proposals and Winning Work Ch 95-105
  1. How an Industrial Tender Runs
  2. Reading the Request for Proposal Pack
  3. The Pricing Grid the Buyer Imposes
  4. Making Bids Comparable Across Suppliers
  5. The Non-Price Criteria That Decide Awards
  6. The Bid or No-Bid Decision
  7. Partial Bids and Shared Supply Awards
  8. The Reverse Auction and Live Bidding
  9. Winning on Structure Rather Than Price
  10. Post-Tender Clarification and Best and Final
  11. A Tender Bid Assembled
M9 Renewal, Churn and Account Economics Ch 106-116
  1. The Renewal Window and Its Timing
  2. Why a Renewal Prices Differently
  3. The Incumbency Advantage and Its Limits
  4. What Churn Actually Costs
  5. The Legacy Contract That Loses Money
  6. Repricing and Reopeners Mid-Term
  7. Customer Growth, Shrinkage and Site Closure
  8. Credit Deterioration During the Term
  9. The Lifetime Value of an Account
  10. Measuring Margin After the Fact
  11. The Customer Book Handed to the Portfolio
M10 A Complete Offer, and the Limits of Pricing Ch 117-126
  1. The Brief: One Industrial Customer
  2. Building the Case Customer's Shape
  3. Costing the Case Shape
  4. Stacking the Case Price
  5. Choosing the Case Structure and Tolerance
  6. Quoting and Negotiating the Case Deal
  7. Handing the Signed Case Deal Onward
  8. Where Shape Costing Breaks Down
  9. The Charges That Are Really Judgements
  10. What the Origination Desk Owes the Rest

The brochure gives each of these 126 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 14 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Natural Gas Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway