Course 18 of 20 · Natural Gas Desk Academy

Supply, Storage & Demand Portfolio

Stage E, Integrated book management. Level 9 of 10.

The consolidated portfolio decision: optimising supply, transport, storage and demand positions together against limits, and reporting one portfolio position.

124 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 10, Course 12, Course 13, Course 17

Enrol or enquire See the 124 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 124 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Portfolio as One Object Ch 1-10
  1. When Positions Stop Being Managed One at a Time
  2. What Belongs Inside the Portfolio Boundary
  3. Netting, Offsetting and the Difference Between Them
  4. The Four Things a Gas Portfolio Is Made Of
  5. Why the Whole Is Not the Sum of the Deals
  6. The Daily and Seasonal Rhythm of a Portfolio Desk
  7. Who the Portfolio Serves
  8. The Language of Consolidated Management
  9. Flexibility Counted as a Portfolio Asset
  10. What You Are Assumed to Already Hold
M1 Building the Single Position View Ch 11-22
  1. Choosing the Unit Everything Converts Into
  2. Choosing the Time Granularity of the Position
  3. Loading Supply Agreements Into the Aggregate
  4. Loading Transport Rights Into the Aggregate
  5. Loading Storage Rights Into the Aggregate
  6. Loading Hedges Into the Aggregate
  7. Loading Customer Obligations Into the Aggregate
  8. Firm, Conditional and Expected: Three Grades of Volume
  9. The As-Of Moment and Why It Must Be Stated
  10. Reconciling the Aggregate Back to Its Sources
  11. The One Page a Trader Can Read in Ninety Seconds
  12. A Single Position View Built From Scratch, Worked
M2 What Is Actually Being Optimised Ch 23-33
  1. Stating the Objective Before Touching a Model
  2. Margin, Cash and Risk-Adjusted Return as Rivals
  3. Decision Variables: What the Desk Can Actually Change
  4. Constraints That Are Physical and Constraints That Are Chosen
  5. Optimising Beneath a Cash Ceiling
  6. Why the Model's Answer Is a Candidate, Not a Decision
  7. Degenerate Optima and the Plan That Flips Overnight
  8. Marginal Worth and the Question Really Being Answered
  9. Optimising One Season Against Optimising Three
  10. What Gets Left Out of Every Objective
  11. Two Objectives, Two Plans, One Operation: Compared
M3 The Seasonal Plan Ch 34-45
  1. The Seasonal Plan as a Single Commercial Decision
  2. Reading the Demand Shape the Plan Must Serve
  3. Stacking Supply Against That Shape
  4. Sizing the Injection Programme
  5. Sizing the Withdrawal Programme
  6. Fitting Transport Around Injection and Withdrawal
  7. Where the Plan Deliberately Leaves Volume Unmatched
  8. The Hedge Overlay the Plan Implies
  9. Writing the Plan Down So It Can Be Audited
  10. The Assumptions a Plan Carries Without Saying So
  11. Approving the Plan and What Approval Commits
  12. A Seasonal Plan Constructed End to End
M4 Allocating a Scarce Right Ch 46-56
  1. When Two Uses Want the Same Right
  2. Opportunity Cost as the Only Honest Test
  3. Reading the Shadow Price of a Binding Right
  4. Allocating Transport Between Competing Flows
  5. Allocating Inventory Space Between a Customer and a Spread
  6. Internal Transfer Pricing Inside One Operation
  7. Rationing Rules Written Before the Scarcity Arrives
  8. Reserving Capability Against Obligations You Cannot Fail
  9. Telling an Internal Requester No
  10. Allocation Choices That Quietly Became Precedent
  11. A Contested Capacity Allocation, Resolved
M5 Use It or Monetise It Ch 57-66
  1. The Asset-Backed Question Stated Plainly
  2. Comparing Retained Use Against an Outright Release
  3. What a Release Surrenders That the Price Does Not Show
  4. Re-Entry Cost and the Irreversibility of Monetising
  5. Partial Monetisation and Keeping the Option Alive
  6. Credit and Counterparty Consequences of a Release
  7. Monetising Flexibility Rather Than Capacity
  8. The Rights an Operation Should Never Monetise
  9. Reviewing Monetisation Choices After the Fact
  10. An Inventory Right Weighed: Used, Released or Split
M6 The Limit Framework Ch 67-78
  1. Why a Limit Is a Decision and Not a Warning
  2. What Each Limit Is Actually For
  3. Volumetric Ceilings and the Exposure They Bound
  4. Tenor Ceilings and the Far End of the Curve
  5. Spread and Locational Ceilings
  6. Ceilings on Collateral and Funding Consumption
  7. Concentration Ceilings: Counterparty, Point and Season
  8. Loss Ceilings and the Behaviour They Produce
  9. Setting a Ceiling: Where the Number Comes From
  10. Utilisation Reporting and the Ceiling Nobody Watches
  11. Breaches, Excesses and What Follows
  12. A Limit Framework Written for One Gas Operation
M7 Position Reporting and the Two Views Ch 79-89
  1. What a Position Report Is For
  2. The Morning Pack and Who Reads Which Page
  3. The Trader's View of the Position
  4. The Recorded View of the Position
  5. Why the Two Views Disagree: Timing
  6. Why the Two Views Disagree: Marks and Judgement
  7. Why the Two Views Disagree: Scope and Mapping
  8. Investigating a Difference Rather Than Arguing About It
  9. Marks, Mark Approval and Independent Verification
  10. Reporting Upward Without Flattening the Picture
  11. One Reconciliation, Followed to Its Cause
M8 Attribution Ch 90-100
  1. What Attribution Is Supposed to Tell You
  2. Cutting the Result Into Explainable Pieces
  3. Attributing Result to the Physical Position
  4. Attributing Result to the Hedge Overlay
  5. Attributing Result to Inventory
  6. Attributing Result to Contractual Flexibility
  7. Attributing Result to Locational Movement
  8. Attributing Result to Time and to the Calendar Roll
  9. The Residual and What a Growing One Means
  10. Attribution as a Diagnostic for the Plan
  11. A Season Attributed, Line by Line
M9 Measuring Risk and Designing Stress Ch 101-112
  1. Putting One Number on a Whole Portfolio
  2. Building Value at Risk for a Gas Operation
  3. What the Measure Assumes About Your Holdings
  4. Where Embedded Optionality Breaks the Measure
  5. Non-Linearity, Convexity and the Missing Tail
  6. Holding Period, Liquidation Window and Honesty
  7. Correlation Assumptions and the Day They Stop Holding
  8. Testing the Measure Against What Happened
  9. Designing a Scenario Worth Running
  10. Stress That Is Ritual and Stress That Changes a Decision
  11. Reverse Stress: Starting From What You Cannot Survive
  12. A Scenario Suite Designed for One Portfolio
M10 Rebalancing, Governance and the Close Ch 113-124
  1. The Plan as a Living Commitment
  2. Rebalancing When the Forecast Moves
  3. Trigger-Based Replanning Rather Than Constant Fiddling
  4. The Cost of Changing Your Mind
  5. Distinguishing New Information From Market Noise
  6. Decision Rights: Who Changes What
  7. The Oversight Committee and What It Decides
  8. Challenge, Dissent and the Written Record
  9. A Seasonal Programme at Mid-Year: The Review
  10. A Seasonal Programme at Mid-Year: The Revision
  11. What a Consolidated Gas Position Will Never Show
  12. Good Decisions and Good Outcomes

The brochure gives each of these 124 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 18 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Natural Gas Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway