Course 19 of 20 · Natural Gas Desk Academy

Supply Security & Extreme-Weather Response

Stage E, Integrated book management. Level 9 of 10.

Stress response: curtailment priority, emergency procurement, force majeure execution and resilience planning for a supply obligation under extreme conditions.

127 chapters · 12 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 04, Course 07, Course 10, Course 18

Enrol or enquire See the 127 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

12 modules · 127 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 When the Weather Breaks the Book Ch 1-10
  1. Why Physical Failure in Gas Has Human Consequences
  2. The Commercial Problem That Human Consequence Creates
  3. Ordinary Cold and Extreme Cold Are Different Problems
  4. The Anatomy of a System at Peak Stress
  5. Three Failures That Arrive Together
  6. Who Gets Cut First, and Why Somebody Must
  7. What a Promise to Deliver Is Worth When You Cannot
  8. The Asymmetry That Governs Every Stress Decision
  9. The Language of a Stressed System
  10. Map of the Material and the Threads It Hands On
M1 Firm, Interruptible and the Curtailment Hierarchy Ch 11-21
  1. What Firm Actually Promises
  2. What Interruptible Actually Promises
  3. Reading Your Own Portfolio's Priority Standing
  4. Where the Curtailment Hierarchy Comes From
  5. Protected Load and the Human-Needs Category
  6. Industrial and Generation Load in the Cut Order
  7. Service Tiers Ranked at the Moment of Scarcity
  8. Choosing Which of Your Own Customers to Serve First
  9. Exercising a Right to Interrupt
  10. Entitlement Versus Deliverability
  11. A Priority Stack for One Illustrative Book
M2 Operator Notices and What Each One Compels Ch 22-32
  1. The Notice Ladder From Advisory to Emergency
  2. Operational Flow Orders and What They Oblige
  3. Critical Days, Alert Days and Named Cold Events
  4. When Imbalance Tolerance Collapses to Zero
  5. Penalty Structures That Only Bite in Cold Weather
  6. Emergency Declarations and Directed Load Shedding
  7. Nominating Under an Active Notice
  8. Reading a Notice for What It Requires of You
  9. Who Reads the Notice and Who Acts On It
  10. Logging Compliance While You Comply
  11. A Notice Sequence Across One Illustrative Day
M3 Supply-Side Failure in the Cold Ch 33-42
  1. Freeze-offs: The Physical Mechanism
  2. How a Freeze-off Reaches Your Nomination
  3. Processing and Gathering Capacity Lost in the Cold
  4. Compression and Pipeline Equipment Under Stress
  5. Storage Deliverability When It Matters Most
  6. The Electricity the Gas System Depends On
  7. Quantifying Supply at Risk Before It Fails
  8. A Supply Cascade, Worked
  9. Confirming What You Have Actually Lost
  10. Re-sourcing From Inside Your Own Book First
M4 Demand Beyond Any Forecast Ch 43-52
  1. What a Forecast Error Costs in a Cold Snap
  2. Load Curves That Steepen Rather Than Extend
  3. The Tail Day Nobody Costed
  4. Customers Who Do Not Behave Like the Model
  5. Load That Returns Faster Than You Expect
  6. Measuring Unserved and Nearly-Unserved Load
  7. The Interruptible Customer Who Does Not Interrupt
  8. Confidence Bands When the Distribution Stops Working
  9. Updating the Requirement Hour by Hour
  10. A Forecast Miss Worked Through to Money
M5 Emergency Procurement Ch 53-63
  1. The Market When Everyone Needs Gas at Once
  2. Who Is Actually Selling on a Critical Day
  3. Buying Intraday and Same-Day Under Stress
  4. The Price You Pay Versus the Price You See
  5. Gas You Can Buy and Cannot Move
  6. Alternative Delivery Points and Displacement
  7. Buying Molecules or Buying Relief
  8. Paying a Customer Not to Burn
  9. Fuel Switching and Dual-Fuel Relief
  10. Credit and Paperwork at Emergency Speed
  11. One Emergency Procurement Programme, Costed
M6 Buy at Any Price, or Fail to Deliver Ch 64-73
  1. Framing the Decision Honestly
  2. Pricing the Cost of Non-Performance
  3. Franchise, Reputation and the Cost You Cannot Invoice
  4. A Regulated Duty and a Commercial Promise
  5. Where the Authority to Spend Actually Sits
  6. The Escalation Path at Two in the Morning
  7. Pre-Agreed Mandates and Trigger Levels
  8. Deciding on Information You Do Not Have
  9. Recording the Decision as You Make It
  10. Two Books, One Snap, Opposite Choices
M7 Declaring Force Majeure Ch 74-84
  1. What Force Majeure Is and Is Not
  2. The Clause You Actually Signed
  3. Weather as a Qualifying Event
  4. The Causation Test
  5. The Duty to Mitigate Before You Claim
  6. Notice Timing, Form and Delivery
  7. The Evidence File a Declaration Requires
  8. Partial Performance and Pro-Rata Short Supply
  9. What a Valid Claim Suspends, and What It Leaves
  10. Hardship Is Not Force Majeure
  11. Drafting One Declaration, Worked
M8 On the Receiving End of Somebody Else's Failure Ch 85-95
  1. A Force Majeure Notice Arrives
  2. Testing Somebody Else's Claim
  3. Replacing Volume You Were Promised
  4. Keeping the Claim Alive While Keeping the Gas Flowing
  5. Passing Force Majeure Down the Chain
  6. Mismatched Clauses in a Back-to-Back Book
  7. Counterparty Failure in the Middle of the Event
  8. The Buyer Who Cannot Pay the Spike Invoice
  9. Exposure to a Failing Counterparty Mid-Snap
  10. The Disputes That Follow the Thaw
  11. A Two-Sided Failure, Worked Through
M9 The Liquidity Event Ch 96-105
  1. Why a Hedged Book Runs Out of Cash
  2. Margin Today, Physical Gain Next Month
  3. Variation Margin on a Short Hedge in a Rally
  4. Collateral Demands From Every Direction at Once
  5. Prepayment, Cash in Advance and Lost Credit
  6. The Invoice Priced at Spike Levels
  7. Forecasting Peak Funding Need for a Stress Week
  8. Triage When Cash Is the Binding Constraint
  9. Unwinding a Hedge Because of Cash
  10. One Liquidity Week, Day by Day
M10 Aftermath, Accountability and Recovery Ch 106-115
  1. The First Week After the Thaw
  2. What a Regulatory Inquiry Asks For
  3. The Record You Wish You Had Kept
  4. Political Attention and the Price Nobody Can Defend
  5. Who Ends Up Paying for the Spike
  6. Renegotiating After a Failure
  7. Litigation Exposure From a Supply Failure
  8. Reviewing the Event Without Hunting a Culprit
  9. What Changes in the Next Winter Plan
  10. Explaining the Result to People Who Were Not There
M11 Resilience Before the Event, and Its Limits Ch 116-127
  1. Resilience as a Commercial Discipline
  2. Designing the Peak-Day Supply Stack
  3. Contracting for Standby and Last-Resort Supply
  4. Physical Redundancy and What It Costs to Hold
  5. Stress-Testing the Obligation Rather Than the Position
  6. The Playbook Written Before It Is Needed
  7. Drills, Dry Runs and the Call Tree
  8. A Cold-Snap Week, Part One: The Build-Up
  9. A Cold-Snap Week, Part Two: Peak Day
  10. A Cold-Snap Week, Part Three: Failure and Cash
  11. A Cold-Snap Week, Part Four: The Reckoning
  12. What Resilience Planning Cannot Prevent

The brochure gives each of these 127 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 19 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Natural Gas Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway