Course 11 of 20 · Power and Electricity Desk Academy

Renewable Capture Prices & Curtailment

Stage C, Commercial exposure and hedging. Level 5 of 10.

Capture price, profile loss and curtailment economics for weather-driven generation.

115 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 02, Course 03, Course 09

Enrol or enquire See the 115 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 115 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Weather-Driven Revenue Problem Ch 1-10
  1. Why a Wind Farm's Revenue Is Not Volume Times Average Price
  2. The Capture Price as the Desk's Single Summary Number
  3. Dispatchable Revenue Against Weather-Driven Revenue
  4. Who Carries Capture Risk and Who Merely Reports It
  5. The Four Deductions Between Reference Price and Received Revenue
  6. What the Desk Can Change and What It Can Only Measure
  7. The Reference Price Choice That Frames Every Capture Number
  8. Metered Output, Available Output and Potential Output
  9. Where Capture Analysis Ends and Hedging Begins
  10. The Route From Weather to Bank Balance
M1 Generation Profiles That Set Capture Ch 11-21
  1. Onshore Wind Output Through a Day and Through a Year
  2. Offshore Wind and the Commercial Value of Steadiness
  3. Solar Output and the Midday Concentration Problem
  4. Capacity Factor and Capture Rate Are Not the Same Claim
  5. Fleet Correlation: Your Wind Blows When Everyone's Does
  6. Geographic Spread as a Partial Cure for Correlation
  7. Mixing Wind and Solar Inside One Book
  8. Run-of-River Hydro: Weather-Driven on a Slower Clock
  9. The Turbine Power Curve Behind Every Output Number
  10. Hours at Zero, Hours at Full and the Output Duration Curve
  11. Reading an Asset's Historic Output File Before Quoting Anything
M2 The Capture Price Calculation Ch 22-32
  1. Volume-Weighted Average Price: The Core Arithmetic
  2. A Worked Solar Capture Month, Part One: Assembling the Inputs
  3. A Worked Solar Capture Month, Part Two: Reading the Result
  4. Capture Rate, Capture Discount and Capture Spread
  5. Granularity: Why an Hourly Calculation Hides Half-Hourly Loss
  6. Choosing Between Baseload, Peak and a Technology Index
  7. Monthly, Seasonal and Annual Capture Figures Disagree
  8. Capture Price Against a Technology-Specific Market Index
  9. Why Two Analysts Get Different Answers From One Dataset
  10. Negative Hours Inside a Capture Calculation
  11. Building a Capture Calculation Sheet You Can Reuse
M3 Profile Loss Decomposed Ch 33-42
  1. Isolating Profile Loss From Everything Else
  2. The Time-of-Day Component of Profile Loss
  3. The Seasonal Component of Profile Loss
  4. Profile Loss Looks Different for Solar and for Wind
  5. A Full Decomposition Worked End to End, Part One
  6. A Full Decomposition Worked End to End, Part Two
  7. Attributing the Residual Nobody Wants to Own
  8. Keeping Profile Loss and Locational Basis Apart
  9. When Profile Loss Turns Into Profile Gain
  10. Presenting a Decomposition the Asset Owner Will Accept
M4 Cannibalisation and Capture Rate Decay Ch 43-52
  1. The Self-Inflicted Discount: Added Capacity Lowers Your Own Price
  2. Hour-by-Hour Cannibalisation Within One Technology
  3. Cross-Technology Cannibalisation Between Wind and Solar
  4. Reading the Midday Trough as a Commercial Signal
  5. A Marginal Capacity Sensitivity Worked Through
  6. Capture Rate Decay Across a Twenty-Year Asset Life
  7. What Slows the Decay: Flexibility, Demand and Interconnection
  8. Reading Someone Else's Capture Rate Forecast Critically
  9. Constructing Your Own Long-Run Capture Rate Path
  10. Where Cannibalisation Analysis Overstates the Damage
M5 Forecast Error and the Revenue It Removes Ch 53-62
  1. A Weather Forecast Is a Revenue Forecast
  2. Day-Ahead Output Forecast Against Metered Reality
  3. Measuring Forecast Error in Megawatt Hours and in Money
  4. Errors That Cancel and Errors That Compound Across a Fleet
  5. Being Long When the Wind Drops Away
  6. Being Short When the Wind Builds Beyond Forecast
  7. Forecast Error as a Named Line in the Capture Decomposition
  8. Choosing and Blending Forecast Providers
  9. Where Position Adjustment and Cash-Out Take Over
  10. A Month of Forecast Error Costed Against Achieved Capture
M6 Curtailment and Who Orders It Ch 63-73
  1. Curtailment Defined as Energy You Could Have Produced
  2. Network Constraint Curtailment and the Instruction Behind It
  3. System-Level Curtailment at Minimum Demand
  4. Economic Curtailment: Stopping Because the Price Says So
  5. Outages and Deratings That Are Not Curtailment
  6. Priority Rules: Who Gets Reduced First
  7. Compensated Curtailment Against Uncompensated Curtailment
  8. The Curtailment Instruction as a Document and a Timestamp
  9. Firm and Non-Firm Connection Terms
  10. Curtailment Risk by Constraint Zone
  11. Sorting One Month of Reductions Into Causes
M7 Measuring and Proving Lost Generation Ch 74-83
  1. The Counterfactual Problem at the Heart of Every Claim
  2. Deemed Generation From Declared Availability
  3. Reference Turbine and Nacelle Anemometry Methods
  4. Power Curve Estimation and Its Error Band
  5. Solar Lost Generation From Measured Irradiance
  6. Availability Declarations and the Honesty They Require
  7. Disputing a Lost Generation Figure With a Counterparty
  8. The Evidence Pack for a Curtailment Claim, Part One
  9. The Evidence Pack for a Curtailment Claim, Part Two
  10. Two Methods, Two Compensation Figures, One Asset
M8 Curtailment Economics Ch 84-94
  1. What One Curtailed Megawatt Hour Actually Costs
  2. The Wholesale Revenue Forgone, Priced Correctly
  3. Support Payments and Certificates Lost With the Volume
  4. Compensation Received Against Revenue Lost
  5. Curtailment as a Percentage and as a Number
  6. The Decision to Stop at a Sub-Zero Price, Part One
  7. The Decision to Stop at a Sub-Zero Price, Part Two
  8. Bidding Behaviour Where Constraint Payments Exist
  9. The Variable Cost of a Weather-Driven Unit Is Not Zero
  10. Fleet Curtailment Economics Against Single-Site Economics
  11. A Curtailment Year Costed From End to End
M9 Projecting Capture and Curtailment Forward Ch 95-104
  1. From Historic Capture to Forward Capture
  2. Building a Forward Capture Price From a Shape Assumption
  3. Hourly Shape Views Without Hourly Forward Prices
  4. Projecting a Curtailment Rate From Connection Information
  5. Reinforcement Timing and the Curtailment Cliff
  6. Scenario Pairs: High Build Meets High Curtailment
  7. A Sensitivity Table for Capture and Curtailment
  8. Backtesting Last Year's Capture Forecast
  9. Documenting Assumptions So the Number Survives Review
  10. Handing a Capture Forecast to the Hedging Desk
M10 The Whole Picture and Its Limits Ch 105-115
  1. One Wind Farm Reviewed End to End, Part One: The Year as Reported
  2. One Wind Farm Reviewed End to End, Part Two: Capture and Profile
  3. One Wind Farm Reviewed End to End, Part Three: Reductions and Verdict
  4. A Solar Portfolio Reviewed Against Its Own Expectation
  5. The Monthly Revenue Variance Meeting
  6. Explaining a Weak Month Without Blaming the Weather
  7. Where Capture Price Analysis Misleads
  8. What Curtailment Numbers Cannot Tell You
  9. Route-to-Market Choices This Work Informs But Does Not Price
  10. The Capture and Curtailment Pack a Desk Keeps Current
  11. Threads That Resume in the Courses Ahead

The brochure gives each of these 115 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 11 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Power and Electricity Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway