Course 06 of 20 · Power Origination and PPA Desk Academy

Capture Prices, Basis & Cannibalisation

Stage B, Structure, shape and risk allocation. Level 4 of 10.

Calculating a generator's achieved capture price and the locational and cannibalisation discounts against the reference price.

116 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 03, Course 05

Enrol or enquire See the 116 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 116 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 From a Quoted Price to an Offerable Strike Ch 1-10
  1. Why the Forward Quote on the Screen Is Not the Price You Can Offer
  2. The Three Deductions an Origination Desk Must Price
  3. Whose Number Is It: Seller, Buyer, Adviser and Lender
  4. Achieved Price Defined for a Contract Rather Than a Revenue Report
  5. Below the Simple Average Means Production Landed in Cheap Periods
  6. The Reference Quotation a Deduction Is Quoted Against
  7. What This Desk Takes as Given From Profile and Volume Work
  8. The Shaping Cost of a Structure Against the Capture Discount of a Profile
  9. Curtailment, Stops and Availability Are Named and Handed On
  10. The Route From a Data Pack to a Priced Deduction
M1 Agreeing a Measurement Basis Before Anyone Quotes Ch 11-20
  1. Two Parties, One Asset, Two Capture Figures
  2. The Metering Point the Deduction Is Measured At
  3. Resolution: Half-Hourly, Hourly or Quarter-Hourly
  4. Time Stamps, Clock Changes and the Hours Nobody Agrees On
  5. Which Years of History Count, and Which Are Thrown Away
  6. Loss Adjustment Between Meter and Reference Point
  7. Modelled Output Against Metered Output in a Tender Pack
  8. Pricing a Site That Has Never Generated
  9. Gaps, Zeros and Outage Periods Inside the Window
  10. The Convention Annex a Tender Should Carry
M2 Calculating the Capture Discount From a Counterparty's Data Ch 21-31
  1. Reproducing the Seller's Quoted Figure From the Seller's Own File
  2. Weighting by Volume Rather Than by Time
  3. The Form a Deduction Must Take to Enter an Offer
  4. A Worked Solar Deduction on Tender Data, Part One: The Inputs
  5. A Worked Solar Deduction on Tender Data, Part Two: The Answer
  6. A Worked Wind Deduction Where the Loss Is Episodic
  7. The Contract Year, the Calendar Year and the Weather Year
  8. Periods Priced Below Zero Inside a Quotation
  9. Four Choices That Explain Almost Every Disagreement
  10. A Deduction Quoted With Its Own Uncertainty Attached
  11. Separating When From Where Before Either Is Quoted
M3 Capture Behaviour by Technology, Read as an Offer Constraint Ch 32-41
  1. What a Midday-Concentrated Profile Does to an Offerable Strike
  2. An Episodic Wind Shape and the Strike It Supports
  3. Offshore Steadiness and Whether It Earns a Better Price
  4. The Yield Figure in an Information Memorandum Is Not a Price Figure
  5. Run-of-River Hydro Priced on a Seasonal Rather Than Hourly Question
  6. Two Sites, One Technology, Different Achieved Prices
  7. Tracking, Tilt and Orientation as Commercial Choices
  8. Degradation, Repowering and a Shape That Does Not Stay Put
  9. A Buyer's Load Shape Against the Generator's Achieved Price
  10. Why a Technology Comparison Flatters Whoever Chose the Window
M4 The Locational Deduction Between Delivery Point and Reference Ch 42-53
  1. The Point Energy Is Delivered At and the Point It Is Priced At
  2. Which Way Round the Locational Adjustment Runs
  3. A Deduction at One Node Is a Premium at Another
  4. Nodal Markets: The Adjustment Prints in the Settlement Price
  5. Zonal Markets: The Adjustment Hides in Charges Instead
  6. Zone Boundaries Redrawn Under a Signed Contract
  7. The Locational Record a Data Room Hands Over
  8. What the Delivery Point Costs the Contract in Money
  9. Quoting a Locational Allowance That Survives a Bad Fortnight
  10. The Party Who Ends Up Paying for Where the Plant Sits
  11. An Allowance for a Connection With No Traded Reference
  12. Reinforcement Timing and the Allowance That Disappears
M5 Cannibalisation as a Priced Assumption Ch 54-65
  1. The Deduction That Deepens as Similar Capacity Connects
  2. A Tendency, Not a Law: What Breaks the Relationship
  3. Whose Decay Path Is in the Strike
  4. Backing a Decay Assumption Out of a Quoted Contract Price
  5. Cross-Technology Effects a Solar Seller Cannot Control
  6. Testing an Offer Against a Queue of Announced Projects
  7. The Fixed Price That Transfers the Decay to the Buyer
  8. A Floating Price Leaves the Decay With the Seller
  9. The Cannibalisation Argument and Its Assumptions
  10. The Forecast Handed Across the Table
  11. A House View a Desk Can Defend in Every Tender
  12. How Far Out the Assumption Should Be Allowed to Reach
M6 Building the Forward Deduction You Will Quote Ch 66-75
  1. Last Year's Achieved Price Is Not Next Year's Offer
  2. The Shape View Behind an Offer, and Who Owns It
  3. What a Broker Will and Will Not Quote You
  4. A Resource Year, a Weather Year and the One You Quote
  5. Interannual Variability in the Deduction, Not Just the Volume
  6. Pairing Assumptions That Cannot Move Independently
  7. A Two-Way Table an Origination Desk Can Put to a Board
  8. Backtesting the Deduction You Quoted Last Year
  9. An Assumption Register That Travels With the Offer
  10. Handing the Deduction Set to the Pricing Desk
M7 Reconciling Your Number Against the Counterparty's Ch 76-85
  1. The Bid That Looks Cheap Because It Assumed Something Else
  2. Normalising Competing Offers Onto One Set of Conventions
  3. The Lender's Deduction Is Deliberately Harsher
  4. A Buyer's Internal Benchmark Against the Market Number
  5. Defending Your Working Line by Line
  6. The Unexplained Share and Who Pays for It
  7. An Agreed Number Reached Without Either Side Conceding Method
  8. Independent Review of a Capture Assumption
  9. Information Rights Over the Data Behind the Number
  10. Reviewing a Deduction Somebody Else Produced
M8 Where the Deduction Lands in the Contract Ch 86-95
  1. Four Places a Capture Assumption Shows Up in a Term Sheet
  2. Naming the Valuation Reference Without Pricing the Settlement
  3. An Index That Is Discontinued Mid-Contract
  4. A Fixed Allowance Against a Pass-Through
  5. A Review Clause Triggered by the Deduction Itself
  6. Warranting the Production Series a Price Was Built On
  7. The Delivery Point Named, and What a Change to It Costs
  8. Indexation Hooks the Deduction Argues For
  9. A Deduction Quoted Before the Curtailment Rule Is Settled
  10. Internal Consistency Between the Strike and the Assumption Behind It
M9 The Deduction Under Each Delivery and Volume Structure Ch 96-105
  1. Pay-as-Produced and the Deduction a Strike Must Already Reflect
  2. A Baseload Conversion and the Deduction That Survives It
  3. A Shaped Offtake Priced Against Its Own Residual
  4. A Virtual Contract and the Two Locations It Straddles
  5. A Sleeved Delivery and the Deduction Inside the Fee
  6. On-Site and Private Wire: Where the Deduction Nearly Vanishes
  7. Part-Volume Offtakes and the Share Each Side Takes
  8. Multi-Technology Offers Compared on One Basis
  9. A Storage-Firmed Offer and the Deduction It Claims to Remove
  10. The Same Asset Offered Into Two Markets at Once
M10 A Worked Offer and the Limits of the Method Ch 106-116
  1. The Integrative Offer, Part One: The Mandate and the Data Pack
  2. The Integrative Offer, Part Two: The Timing Deduction Measured
  3. The Integrative Offer, Part Three: The Locational Allowance Set
  4. The Integrative Offer, Part Four: The Decay Path Chosen
  5. The Integrative Offer, Part Five: The Number and the Clauses
  6. The Integrative Offer, Part Six: The Buyer's Counter
  7. The Same Project Offered by the Buyer's Adviser Instead
  8. A Tender of Three Offers Decided on Deduction Grounds
  9. What a Capture and Basis Number Cannot Tell You
  10. Where Overstating the Decay Loses a Deal That Was Worth Doing
  11. The Standing Pack and the Threads That Resume Later

The brochure gives each of these 116 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 6 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Power Origination and PPA Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway