Course 18 of 20 · Battery and Flexibility Desk Academy

Investment Cases & Revenue Uncertainty

Stage E, Investment, stress and integrated practice. Level 9 of 10.

Building and defending an investment case on an uncertain future revenue stack, including sensitivity, merchant-risk treatment and the contracted versus merchant mix.

119 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 11, Course 13, Course 17

Enrol or enquire See the 119 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 119 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 An Income Stream Nobody Can Promise Ch 1-10
  1. What an Investment Case for a Flexibility Asset Has to Settle
  2. Whose Seat the Case Is Built From
  3. The Revenue Stack Is the Uncertain Part, Not a Caveat
  4. A Contracted Stream and a Merchant Expectation Are Different Objects
  5. Why a Stream Disappearing Is an Ordinary Scenario
  6. No Returns, Capital Costs or Price Curves Appear Here
  7. What the Revenue and Cost Build Already Settled
  8. What the Floor and Toll Structures Already Settled
  9. The Conclusion That the Asset Should Not Be Built
  10. The Route From a Graded Stack to a Defended Decision
M1 Grading the Income Lines Ch 11-21
  1. Four Grades of Income Certainty
  2. A Signed Contract That Is Less Firm Than It Looks
  3. A Merchant Expectation Dressed as a Contract
  4. Availability Money and Utilisation Money Are Graded Separately
  5. An Awarded Capacity Agreement Before It Is Signed
  6. Income From a Market You Are Only Qualified to Enter
  7. The Wholesale Trading Line Has No Contract at All
  8. Grading the Optimiser's Share of What It Earns
  9. The Grade Changes Across the Years of One Line
  10. The Dependence Measure a Reviewer Reads First
  11. The Grading Sheet for One Candidate Asset
M2 The Stack Itself Does Not Stand Still Ch 22-32
  1. A Revenue Catalogue With a History of Being Rewritten
  2. Renaming: The Same Service Under a New Label
  3. Merging: Two Products Collapsed Into One
  4. Repricing: The Same Product at a Different Level
  5. Withdrawal: A Product That Simply Closes
  6. The One-Off Tender Nobody Repeated
  7. New Products Appear as Well as Vanish
  8. Counting on a Product That Does Not Exist Yet
  9. Reading the Operator's Published Roadmap Without Believing It
  10. Pan-European Platforms Change Who the Buyer Is
  11. The Expected Life of a Revenue Stream
M3 Capability That Falls Over the Asset's Life Ch 33-42
  1. Carrying the Degradation Allowance Into the Case
  2. A Flat Revenue Assumption Overstates the Later Years
  3. Which Income Lines Shrink With Capability and Which Do Not
  4. The Year the Asset Can No Longer Meet Its Own Commitment
  5. Augmentation as a Decision Inside the Case
  6. The Cycle Budget Spread Across the Appraisal Term
  7. Round-Trip Efficiency Decline as a Cost, Not a Volume
  8. What Happens to the Case When the Warranty Ends
  9. A Guarantee Claim Is Not an Income Line
  10. The Capability Column Finished and Checked
M4 The Years the Case Covers Ch 43-52
  1. Choosing an Appraisal Term and Paying for the Choice
  2. The Connection Date the Whole Profile Hangs On
  3. Commissioning, Qualification and the Gap Before First Payment
  4. The Ramp Year Nobody Models Honestly
  5. Where the Contracted Period Ends and the Case Keeps Going
  6. The Terminal Year and What Is Assumed to Follow It
  7. Decommissioning, Site Restoration and the Obligation at the End
  8. Second-Life and Resale Value as a Separate Argument
  9. Stating the Money Basis Before Any Year Is Added Up
  10. The Year Grid With Every Boundary Marked
M5 Building Without Assuming Growth Ch 53-65
  1. The Flat Baseline as a Deliberately Simplified Starting Point
  2. Why a Rising Revenue Assumption Is Never the Default
  3. The Scarcity Argument for Rising Flexibility Income and Its Assumptions
  4. The Saturation Argument Against It and Its Assumptions
  5. Holding Both Arguments in One Case
  6. Where the Traded Horizon Ends on a Battery Case
  7. Licensing a Storage Revenue Projection You Did Not Build
  8. When Two Revenue Projections Cannot Both Be Right
  9. Choosing a Reference Profile Without Calling It Expected
  10. One Input Moved Against a Whole Stack Reimagined
  11. The Input Register Behind a Storage Case
  12. Shelf Life, Input by Input
  13. What a Storage Case Must Refuse to Claim
M6 The Contracted and Merchant Mix Ch 66-77
  1. The Mix as the Central Decision of the Case
  2. A Higher Merchant Share Raises Expected Return and Widens the Range
  3. A Longer Contracted Floor Narrows the Range and Costs Expected Upside
  4. Neither End of the Mix Is the Safe Choice
  5. Who Chooses the Mix, and Why They Disagree
  6. Contracting a Share of Capability Rather Than a Share of Hours
  7. A Mix That Changes Across the Years
  8. Reading a Toll Against a Floor Inside the Case
  9. Valuing a Floor by Averaging Its Payoffs Across Scenarios
  10. A Cap Written Into a Share Arrangement
  11. The Mix the Asset Can Physically Support
  12. The Decision Rule Behind a Chosen Mix
M7 Sensitivity, One Input at a Time Ch 78-87
  1. Which Inputs Are Worth Moving at All
  2. Sensitivity to Captured Spread, With the Direction Stated
  3. Sensitivity to How Often the System Calls
  4. Sensitivity to the Contracted Share
  5. Sensitivity to the Degradation Allowance
  6. Sensitivity to the Date the Asset Starts Earning
  7. Sensitivity to the Appraisal Term Itself
  8. The Switching Value That Reverses the Decision
  9. Ordering the Inputs by Their Grip on the Outcome
  10. Where One-at-a-Time Testing Stops Being Enough
M8 Scenarios Across the Revenue Stack Ch 88-98
  1. A Small Set of Internally Consistent Worlds
  2. The Scenario Where One Stream Is Withdrawn
  3. Redeployment Is Not a Free Substitution
  4. The Scenario Where Two Streams Merge
  5. The Scenario Where the Service Survives at a Lower Price
  6. The Scenario Where a New Service Appears
  7. Keeping a Scenario Internally Honest
  8. Attaching Likelihoods, and When to Refuse
  9. Reading the Shape of the Outcome Band
  10. The Adverse World Nobody Built
  11. A Scenario Set for One Illustrative Battery
M9 Defending the Case Ch 99-109
  1. The Hurdle the Case Is Measured Against
  2. Measures of Return and What Each Conceals
  3. The Rate That Carries Time and Carries Doubt
  4. Why the Rate Is an Assumption and Must Be Named
  5. The Case That Does Not Clear the Hurdle
  6. Four Responses to a Case That Falls Short
  7. Resizing the Asset Rather Than Rewriting the Case
  8. Deferring Rather Than Declining
  9. The Three Questions That Come Back at a Storage Case
  10. The One Assumption That Decides Everything
  11. Taking an Unfavourable Case Into the Room
M10 A Worked Case and the Limits Ch 110-119
  1. A Worked Case, Part One: The Asset and the Grading Sheet
  2. A Worked Case, Part Two: Capability, Years and the Reference Profile
  3. A Worked Case, Part Three: Choosing the Contracted Share
  4. A Worked Case, Part Four: The Worlds and the Decision
  5. The Paper an Investment Committee Will Read
  6. Keeping a Case Alive as the Stack Changes
  7. What an Investment Case Flattens to Stay Usable
  8. Reading a Single Asset's Case Against the Portfolio
  9. Handing the Open Threads to Their Owners
  10. What an Investment Case Cannot Do

The brochure gives each of these 119 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 18 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Battery and Flexibility Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway