Course 14 of 20 · Freight and Shipping Desk Academy

Freight Curves & Coverage Timing

Stage D, Curves, hedging and carbon cost. Level 7 of 10.

Constructing the forward freight curve from index and paper prices and deciding where along it to place or release coverage.

120 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 05, Course 10, Course 13

Enrol or enquire See the 120 chapters
How a chapter is delivered

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter covers one idea to the point where you can use it, and comes two ways: a narrated explainer, and a deep dive audio discussion of around thirty minutes that works the same material at depth.

Self-paced throughout, and the same chapters can be taught as a cohort. Chapters run in order: each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 120 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 The Curve a Freight Desk Actually Trades Ch 1-11
  1. Why a Freight Desk Needs a Forward View at All
  2. The Shape of a Freight Curve on a Broker Screen
  3. A Curve of Monthly Averages, Not Point Prices
  4. Freight Cannot Be Stored, and What That Removes
  5. Four Things a Desk Calls the Forward
  6. Dollars a Day, Dollars a Tonne, Worldscale Points
  7. One Route, One Curve: Why Freight Curves Multiply
  8. Who Quotes the Forward and Who Believes It
  9. Coverage, Exposure and the Vessel Day as the Unit
  10. The Two Decisions This Capability Supports
  11. The Curve Book You Will Be Able to Build
M1 What the Freight Curve Is Built From Ch 12-22
  1. The Daily Index Print as the Anchor Point
  2. Paper Quotes by Tenor: Months, Quarters, Calendars
  3. The Cascade: How a Calendar Becomes Four Quarters
  4. Broker Period Assessments as Forward Evidence
  5. Clearing House Settlement Marks as a Second Source
  6. Forward Voyage Offers From Owners as Curve Data
  7. Where Each Input Is Reliable and Where It Is Not
  8. Liquid Routes, Assessed Routes and Dark Routes
  9. Dating Every Input Before You Use It
  10. The Minimum Input Set for One Vessel Class
  11. Assembling an Input Sheet for a Capesize Route
M2 Constructing the Route Curve Ch 23-34
  1. From Quoted Blocks to a Month by Month Strip
  2. Making the Monthly Strip Average Back to Its Quarter
  3. Shaping Months Inside a Quarter Without Breaking It
  4. Interpolating a Quarter the Market Does Not Quote
  5. Extending Past the Last Traded Calendar
  6. Building a Curve for a Route With No Paper
  7. Cross-Class Inference: Pricing Supramax Off Panamax
  8. Front Month Against the Running Index Average
  9. The Part of the Front Month Already Fixed
  10. Smoothing Without Inventing a Market
  11. Validating a Curve Before Anyone Marks Against It
  12. A Dry-Bulk Curve Built End to End, Worked
M3 Units and the Forward Earnings Curve Ch 35-45
  1. Why Two Routes on One Curve Need Two Unit Systems
  2. Turning a Forward Worldscale Level Into Dollars a Tonne
  3. The Forward Bunker Curve as a Second Input
  4. Converting a Voyage Forward Into Earnings a Day
  5. Where the Forward Conversion Loses Information
  6. A Forward Earnings Curve for a Named Tanker Route
  7. Ballast Assumptions Inside a Forward Earnings Figure
  8. Port and Canal Costs at a Forward Date
  9. Carrying a Forward Emissions Cost in the Conversion
  10. Comparing a Voyage Route and a Trip Route Forward
  11. Two Unit Systems Reconciled on One Screen, Worked
M4 Why the Freight Curve Takes Its Shape Ch 46-56
  1. No Carry Trade Means No Arithmetic Anchor
  2. Laid-Up Economics as the Floor Under the Curve
  3. The Scarcity Ceiling When Every Ship Is Employed
  4. Convexity, and the Disputed Claim That Forwards Sit Low
  5. The Orderbook as the Story the Far End Tells
  6. Scrapping, Slow Speed and the Supply That Disappears
  7. Seasonality a Grain Programme Puts Into the Curve
  8. Monsoon, Ice Class and the Winter Tanker Shape
  9. Mean Reversion Toward Operating Cost, and Its Limits
  10. Why the Far End Flattens Toward a Replacement Level
  11. Reading Four Curve Shapes and What Each Claims
M5 Paper Curve Against Period Market Ch 57-66
  1. Two Forward Markets for the Same Vessel Year
  2. A Twelve Month Hire Rate Read as a Forward Strip
  3. When Paper and Period Disagree, Who Is Wrong
  4. The Indifference Calculation Between Hire and Paper
  5. What a Physical Period Fixture Gives That Paper Cannot
  6. What Paper Gives That a Period Fixture Cannot
  7. Credit, Guarantees and the Cost of Each Route
  8. Forward Voyage Offers Against the Paper Strip
  9. The Gap You Can Trade and the Gap You Cannot
  10. Choosing Between Hire and Paper for One Year, Worked
M6 The Coverage Requirement Ch 67-76
  1. Stating the Requirement in Vessel Days by Month
  2. Cargo Tonnes Converted Into Days to Be Covered
  3. The Requirement a Contract of Affreightment Creates
  4. Firm Days, Optional Days and Days You Might Win
  5. The Coverage Ladder as a Picture of the Book
  6. Charterer and Operator Want Opposite Coverage
  7. Natural Cover Already Inside the Fixture Book
  8. The Uncovered Profile That Remains
  9. Mandate, Ratio Bands and Who Signs a Coverage Change
  10. A Coverage Requirement Written Up for Approval
M7 Placing Coverage Along the Curve Ch 77-88
  1. The Placement Question Stated as Tenor and Size
  2. Covering the Front Because the Programme Is Certain
  3. Buying the Back Because the Curve Looks Cheap
  4. Layering Cover as the Lifting Programme Firms Up
  5. Calendar, Quarter or Month: Choosing the Block
  6. Paying Up for the Prompt and Calling It a Cost
  7. Partial Ratios and the Case for Covering Half
  8. Covering Tonnage for a Tender You May Not Win
  9. Covering a Class You Will Not Actually Charter
  10. Cover Placed Before a Known Seasonal Turn
  11. The Execution Window a Thin Route Allows You
  12. Placing a Year of Cover in Three Passes, Worked
M8 Releasing and Reshaping Cover Ch 89-99
  1. Recognising an Overcovered Position Early
  2. Selling Cover Back Into the Route You Bought
  3. Releasing Cover When a Lifting Is Cancelled
  4. Holding Cover You No Longer Need, and Why
  5. Rolling Cover Through the Calendar Cascade
  6. Reshaping Cover When the Programme Moves Months
  7. Switching Cover Between Two Vessel Classes
  8. Re-Covering After a Release, and the Round Trip Cost
  9. Cover Against a Fixture That Was Never Lifted
  10. The Coverage Change Log Worth Keeping
  11. A Book Reshaped Twice in One Quarter, Worked
M9 Marks, Attribution and Governance Ch 100-109
  1. Marking the Freight Book to the Curve You Built
  2. Why Two Desks Mark the Same Route Differently
  3. What a Carelessly Marked Route Costs Later
  4. Separating Curve Movement From Coverage Decisions
  5. Attributing a Quarter to Placement and to Timing
  6. The Cash a Correct Coverage Programme Demands
  7. Measuring Whether the Coverage Timing Worked
  8. Explaining a Cover That Lost Money and Was Right
  9. Waiting for a Better Freight Level Is a Position
  10. The Coverage Paper a Committee Will Actually Read
M10 A Coverage Programme Worked, and Its Limits Ch 110-120
  1. The Operator, the Programme and the Curve on Day One
  2. Building the Curve Set the Decision Needs
  3. Reading the Requirement Against the Shape
  4. The First Coverage Pass and Its Arithmetic
  5. The Market Moves and the Second Pass
  6. A Cancelled Cargo and the Release Decision
  7. Closing the Year and Judging the Programme
  8. Where a Curve Built From Thin Quotes Fails
  9. What Coverage Timing Cannot Protect You From
  10. The Residual That Belongs to the Next Course
  11. Handing the Covered Book Onward

The brochure gives each of these 120 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 14 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the Freight and Shipping Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway