Course 03 of 20 · LNG Desk Academy

Regional Supply, Demand & Price Formation

Stage A, Market and cargo fundamentals. Level 2 of 10.

How regional LNG prices form and why basin spreads open and close across hub-indexed, oil-indexed and tender-priced demand.

117 chapters · 11 modules · every chapter one 8 to 10 minute explainer · builds on: Course 01, Course 02

Enrol or enquire See the 117 chapters
How a chapter is sized

One chapter is one idea taken to the point of use

Each chapter is a single self-contained explainer of 8 to 10 narrated minutes, covering one idea to the point where you can use it.

Chapters run in order. Each one assumes only what the chapters before it taught, and capability belonging to a later course is named and deferred rather than half-covered.

Curriculum

11 modules · 117 chapters

Open any module for its full chapter list, in teaching order.

M0 Three Prices for One Commodity Ch 1-9
  1. Three Pricing Worlds at Once
  2. Why a Cargo Is Not a Flow
  3. The Buyer's Alternative Is a Cargo Going Elsewhere
  4. Who Actually Sets the Number
  5. Term Commitment Against Spot Opportunity
  6. What Makes This Commodity Price Oddly
  7. The Geography Price Formation Has to Respect
  8. Index, Formula, Assessment and Tender
  9. How the Course Is Built
M1 Oil Indexation and the Price It Sets Ch 10-21
  1. Why Gas Was Ever Priced Off Crude
  2. The Slope as a Statement About Competing Fuel
  3. A Price Set Where There Is No Gas Market
  4. Index-Blind Volume Inside a Region's Imports
  5. The Burner Set That Justified the Link
  6. The Lender Behind the Convention
  7. Why the Convention Outlived Its Logic
  8. What an Oil-Linked Price Fails to Track
  9. When the Formula Stops Looking Fair
  10. Pressure Across a Whole Contracted Book
  11. The Marginal Buyer Is Rarely the Indexed One
  12. Where Oil Linkage Still Earns Its Place
M2 Hub Indexation and the Borrowed Price Ch 22-31
  1. Importing a Price From Another Market
  2. What a Region Inherits When It Borrows a Hub
  3. Why a Seller Agrees to Hub Linkage
  4. Which Hub Can Carry a Region's Imports
  5. The Negotiated Gap Between Hub and Delivered Cargo
  6. Pricing Into a Market of Last Resort
  7. Borrowing Liquidity You Cannot Influence
  8. When the Hub Starts Clearing Cargoes
  9. How Fast a Price Signal Reaches Each Buyer
  10. When a Borrowed Reference Stops Describing You
M3 Tender, Auction and Negotiated Pricing Ch 32-42
  1. Buying and Selling Where No Index Exists
  2. The Buy Tender as Price Discovery
  3. Inside an Import Tender Document
  4. The Sell Tender From a Project or Portfolio
  5. What a Tender Award Tells the Market
  6. Short Validity and the Clock on an Offer
  7. Comparing Offers That Are Not Comparable
  8. Strip and Multi-Cargo Rounds
  9. The Negotiated Cargo With No Round at All
  10. Public Procurement Rules Around an Import Price
  11. A Tender Round Read as Evidence
M4 The Demand Centres Ch 43-54
  1. What Counts as a Demand Centre
  2. North East Asian Utility Buyers
  3. Chinese Import Demand and Its Competing Supplies
  4. South Asian Affordability-Bounded Demand
  5. European Import Demand as a Residual Call
  6. Latin American Demand and the Rainfall Problem
  7. Middle Eastern and North African Summer Buying
  8. Industrial and Petrochemical Offtake Behind an Importer
  9. Gas-Fired Generation as the Swing Consumer
  10. Residential Distribution and the Obligation to Serve
  11. Demand That Exists Only Below a Price
  12. Stacking the Centres by Willingness to Pay
M5 Supply, Project by Project Ch 55-65
  1. Supply as a List of Plants
  2. Why New Supply Arrives in Steps
  3. Trains, Nameplate and What a Plant Really Produces
  4. The Investment Decision as a Price Event
  5. Commissioning, Ramp and the Unreliable First Year
  6. Outages, Upstream Interruptions and Lost Cargoes
  7. The Maintenance Calendar Across the Fleet
  8. Portfolio Sellers Between Plant and Buyer
  9. Flexible Against Locked Supply
  10. Why One Plant Can Move a Whole Region
  11. Reading a Project Pipeline Without Forecasting
M6 Seasonality and the Hemisphere Offset Ch 66-75
  1. The Winter Peak and the Summer Trough
  2. Cooling Load and the Second Annual Peak
  3. The Southern Hemisphere Offset
  4. Shoulder Months and the Unwanted Cargo
  5. Why the Shape Differs Every Year
  6. Terminal Inventory as a Seasonal Buffer
  7. The Pre-Winter Stocking Season
  8. Weather and Price Pulling in the Same Month
  9. A Two-Basin Seasonal Calendar
  10. When the Expected Pattern Inverts
M7 The Basin Spread Ch 76-86
  1. What a Basin Is, Commercially
  2. The Basin Spread Defined
  3. Putting Two Quotations on One Basis
  4. Why the Spread Exists at All
  5. The Voyage Cost Boundary
  6. Which Basin Is Short, and How You Tell
  7. Who Actually Feels a Spread Move
  8. The Spread Along the Delivery Calendar
  9. Spread Behaviour When Nobody Is Short
  10. A Basin Spread Read on a Single Day
  11. What the Spread Will Not Tell You
M8 What Opens and Closes a Basin Arbitrage Ch 87-97
  1. The Arbitrage Question Stated Precisely
  2. What Opens a Gap Between Basins
  3. What Closes It Again
  4. The Marginal Cargo and Where It Goes
  5. Vessel Availability as the Binding Constraint
  6. Berth and Send-Out Access as a Gate
  7. Destination Restrictions in the Underlying Deal
  8. Credit and Payment as Silent Blockers
  9. A Half-Open Gap and Partial Flows
  10. A Gap That Opens and Shuts Inside a Month
  11. Why a Wide Gap Can Simply Persist
M9 Assessing a Spot Cargo Price Ch 98-108
  1. What a Spot Cargo Assessment Describes
  2. The Delivered Cargo as the Assessed Unit
  3. Delivery Windows and the Half-Month Convention
  4. What Counts as Evidence for a Cargo Conclusion
  5. Normalising Cargoes Onto One Window
  6. Thin Liquidity: Few Cargoes, Fewer Prints
  7. Concluding a Window With No Delivered Sale
  8. Derivative Activity as Assessment Evidence
  9. Two Publishers, Two Numbers, One Basin
  10. Tracking a Change to the Assessment Rules
  11. A Published Assessment Read Honestly
M10 The Regional Picture Whole, and Its Limits Ch 109-117
  1. A Region Assessed, Part One: The Supply Side
  2. A Region Assessed, Part Two: The Demand Side
  3. A Region Assessed, Part Three: The Price Verdict
  4. One Cargo Priced Under Three Conventions
  5. Who Drops Out First, and in What Order
  6. Explaining a Price Move After the Fact
  7. A Weekly Routine for Watching Two Basins
  8. What This Analysis Cannot Do
  9. Where the Pricing Threads Continue

The brochure gives each of these 117 chapters a paragraph on what it covers and what you can do once you have worked through it.

This is course 3 of twenty

It stands alone, and it is also the entry point to the LNG Desk Academy pathway.

Enrol or enquire See the whole pathway